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过去数周的风暴与洪灾已在印尼、泰国、越南与马来西亚造成近1,000人死亡,雅加达一家智库估算仅印尼的经济损失即超过40亿美元。多国保险协会指出极端天气已成为“结构性风险驱动因素”,而非偶发事件,导致巨幅理赔压力与显著保障缺口。例如印尼今年通过政府与机构预算投保的国家资产规模为6.1万亿印尼盾,但新设灾害共同基金机制将使覆盖额上升约3万亿至9.1万亿印尼盾;全国国家资产约为250万亿印尼盾(152亿美元)。越南PVI到11月底已收到约830宗机动车理赔与近500宗其他理赔,均较通常水平“多倍”增加。

行业正重新评估参数以反映更精细的风险分段,包括更新灾害图、洪水模型与再保见解。泰国监管机构要求保险公司维持保费不变并加速处理至少500宗洪灾后房屋与资产索赔;同时市场已出现保费上涨、免赔额加深与在易涝区部分除外责任的趋势。分析机构指出高风险地区的财产正面临更高成本,承保标准趋紧。行业预期未来个人与商业险大量理赔将持续暴露地区性的保障缺口,因为大量受灾者缺乏可触发赔付的有效保单。

协会与再保机构呼吁建立“新模型”以缩小保护缺口与增强区域韧性,其逻辑是将灾害融资从单一保险转向资金池、政府协作与前置减灾建设。多个高管强调“高风险不必然意味着保费上调”,若通过气候韧性基础设施与灾前准备减少损失,保险才能维持可负担与可持续性,使区域在气候冲击加剧的结构性条件下保持承保能力与财务稳定性。

Nearly 1,000 people have died across Indonesia, Thailand, Vietnam and Malaysia in recent weeks, with a Jakarta think tank estimating more than USD 4 billion in losses for Indonesia alone. Regional insurers now classify extreme weather as “structural risk drivers,” noting large claims pressures and widening protection gaps. Indonesia insured IDR 61 trillion of state property this year, and a new disaster pooled fund will raise coverage by IDR 30 trillion to IDR 91 trillion; total state assets are valued around IDR 250 trillion (USD 15.2 billion). Vietnam’s PVI recorded about 830 motor claims and nearly 500 other claims by end-November, both “many times” higher than normal.

Industry bodies are revising catastrophe underwriting parameters using updated hazard maps, flood models and reinsurance data. Thailand’s regulator asked insurers to hold premiums steady and expedite at least 500 post-flood claims, though market conditions already show rising premiums, steeper deductibles and exclusions in high-flood zones. Analysts warn that properties in frequently flooded areas face higher costs as underwriting tightens. Insurers expect personal and commercial claims from the storms to expose substantial protection gaps because many victims lacked coverage.

Reinsurers and associations call for “new models” to narrow gaps and build resilience, shifting disaster financing toward pooled funds, government collaboration and pre-disaster infrastructure. Executives argue that “higher risk does not automatically mean higher premiums,” asserting that climate-resilient infrastructure and preparation can reduce losses and keep protection affordable. They emphasize that insurance must focus not only on payouts but also on reducing risks at their source to maintain sustainability under increasingly structural climate pressures.

2025-12-04 (Thursday) · 86cd2bdf35b520771570d4b8cfb3ff48619143d0