俄罗斯的打压机器最近从打压知识分子、反对派政治家和LGBT活动家,转而对付自身的战争宣传者“Z博主”。仅在过去几个月,因批评高级官员的罗曼·阿廖欣(15.1万订阅者)被定为“外国代理人”,塔季扬娜·蒙钦(40万订阅者)成为首位被定为恐怖分子的Z博主,奥克萨娜·科贝列娃(1万订阅者)也被警方拘留。官方明确表示要与“内部敌人”作斗争,反对声音将被“依法消灭”。
Z博主与官方盘根错节,长期通过揭露腐败和组织捐赠行动支持战场,维护对战争的表面支持。现在这种“容忍”关系破裂,分析人士菲利波夫指出这是一场“物种间的斗争”,草根博主对抗更强势的媒体。军需物资主要靠国家采购,Z博主主导的装备捐赠则覆盖干扰站、医疗产品等。国防部被认为在试图控制这些捐款渠道。尽管形势有如瓦格纳兵变,但这场风波规模较小,无人越界直接批评普京,也未披露俄方伤亡,影响有限。
战况方面,乌克兰在顿涅茨克和东南部节节败退,俄军正招募今年40.3万士兵,仅略低于2024年的42万,招募速度是伤亡的两倍。一些博主甚至呼吁普京加大力度,进行新一轮征兵。尽管他们指责归因模糊,但有报道称克里姆林宫逐步失控,既有对“自由化”的不满,也有对西方式司法的幻想。
Russia’s repressive justice system has recently shifted from targeting intellectuals, opposition politicians, and LGBT activists to focusing on its own war propagandists known as Z-bloggers. In the past months, Roman Alyokhin (151,000 subscribers) was labelled a “foreign agent,” Tatyana Montyan (400,000 subscribers) became the first Z-blogger declared a terrorist, and Oksana Kobeleva (10,000 subscribers) was detained for criticizing senior officials. Officials are now openly vowing to fight against “internal enemies,” legally threatening dissenters.
Z-bloggers, once tolerated for exposing corruption and running donation campaigns, now face a crackdown as the government seeks stricter control. Analyst Ivan Philippov describes the situation as a “struggle between species,” where grassroots bloggers confront more influential media players. While the state supplies major battlefield equipment, less flashy items like jamming stations and medical gear are sourced via blogger-led donations. The Defence Ministry is suspected of redirecting these donations. While reminiscent of the 2023 Wagner mutiny, this dispute is smaller, and bloggers do not openly criticize Putin or reveal Russian casualties, keeping their impact limited.
On the battlefield, Ukraine is retreating in Donetsk and the southeast, while Russia’s 2023 recruitment target of 403,000 soldiers is nearly met, only slightly lower than 2024’s 420,000, with recruitment roughly double the loss rate. Some bloggers urge Putin to intensify the war effort. Although blame is unclear among bloggers—some criticizing “liberalization” over dictatorship—the Kremlin’s grip appears to be loosening, with frustrations about legal protections and governance surfacing.