到2032年至2040年，当前的养老金改革法案预计将导致额外累积成本达1200亿欧元（约合1390亿美元），因为临时提振养老金的措施变成了未来标准。现有协议规定，养老金水平将维持在平均月薪的48%，否则会降至47%，但仅限于2031年前。约有18位年轻议员誓言反对该法案，约20位年长议员可能加入叛变。在德国联邦议院，默茨总理仅拥有12票的微弱多数。

联邦政府明年打算将总预算的四分之一（共5250亿欧元）用于国家养老金。上世纪60年代，每6名德国工人对应1名养老金领取者，如今工人与养老金领取者的比例已降至2:1，且人口结构持续恶化。法定养老保险中的雇主和雇员共同缴纳比例已升至薪资的18.6%，未来还将继续上升。

默茨总理曾承诺推动改革，但联盟内部矛盾激化，改革进展受阻。他目前拒绝与右翼民粹党AfD合作，联盟谈判艰难。默茨可选择推迟议案、协商让步或安抚反对者，但财政和人口压力日益严峻，年轻一代所承受的额外负担已无法再被辩解。

The current draft pension reform law is projected to incur additional cumulative costs of €120 billion ($139 billion) between 2032 and 2040, as a temporary pension increase becomes the future benchmark. The present agreement keeps pension levels at 48% of the average monthly salary, instead of falling to 47%, but only until 2031. Around 18 young MPs have pledged to vote against the bill, with about 20 older MPs potentially joining the rebellion. In the Bundestag, Chancellor Merz commands a slim majority of just 12 votes.

Next year, the federal government plans to allocate one quarter of its total €525 billion budget to state pensions. In the 1960s, the ratio was six German workers per pensioner, but today it has dropped to two to one, with demographics worsening. Statutory pension contributions, split between employer and employee, have risen to 18.6% of salaries, and are set to increase further.

Chancellor Merz had promised reforms, but growing coalition tensions are stalling progress. He currently refuses to work with the right-populist AfD, and coalition negotiations have become tough. Merz can choose to delay the vote, negotiate amendments, or appease rebels, but rising fiscal and demographic pressures mean the additional burden on the younger generation is increasingly hard to justify.