Terafab 的目标是每年提供 1 太瓦（1 TW）运算能力，明确高于目前业界常态规模。第一阶段拟在德州 Austin 建立每月 3,000 片晶圆的试产线（约 36,000 片/年），并规划 2029 年起开始矽晶片制造，再逐步扩张。Bernstein 预估资本支出或介于 5 兆至 13 兆美元之间。Tesla、SpaceX、xAI 目前未披露明确的产品架构、制程技术路线与产能地点，且尚无固定订单落实。
需求压力同时上升：Amazon、Alphabet 等超大规模云端/AI 公司预估今年单独在资料中心基础设施投入约 6500 亿美元，造成记忆体晶片短缺并外溢至 AI 加速器领域。TSMC 执行长 C.C. Wei 指出，新厂建置通常需 2–3 年，且另需 1–2 年爬坡。Berenberg 的 Tammy Qiu 认为 Terafab 方向「是有实质意图」但未来两年内难有实质规模效应，且其估值模型尚未纳入 Terafab；产业端普遍在高成本与高复杂度下持保留态度。
Elon Musk’s Terafab team has contacted Applied Materials, Tokyo Electron, and Lam Research for quotes and delivery times on key chipmaking tools, and also sought support from Samsung Electronics, which instead offered to increase Tesla’s allocation at its planned Taylor, Texas, plant. Suppliers described the pace as “light speed,” with at least one request made on a Friday holiday for a Monday estimate, and Musk’s team said it may pay above-quote premiums for priority supply. The outreach moved markets: Tokyo Electron closed up 5.3%, Applied Materials and Lam Research were up more than 2% in pre-market trading, and ASML rose up to 3.1% in Amsterdam.
Terafab targets 1 terawatt (1 TW) of annual computing capacity, explicitly far above current industry scale assumptions. The first phase is a pilot line in Austin at 3,000 wafers per month, equivalent to about 36,000 wafers per year, with silicon manufacturing slated to begin in 2029 and scale later. Bernstein estimates capital spending between US$5 trillion and US$13 trillion. Tesla, SpaceX, and xAI have not disclosed fixed product architecture, process technology, or location, and no firm purchase orders have been placed yet.
Demand stress is also rising: Amazon, Alphabet and other hyperscalers are expected to spend about US$650 billion this year on data-center infrastructure alone, already deepening memory-chip shortages and spilling into AI accelerators. TSMC chief executive C.C. Wei said new fabs typically require 2–3 years to build and another 1–2 years to ramp. Berenberg’s Tammy Qiu says Terafab’s intent is real but unlikely to have meaningful scale within the next two years, and Terafab is not yet included in her valuation models, with industry caution likely driven by the project’s high costs and complexity.