在4月发布的IMF最新全球经济统计中，人口约7000万的英国重新成为世界第五大经济体，挤下拥有14.5亿人口的印度，后者因此降到第六位。此次排名变化主要归因于卢比疲软，但印度的增长速度约为英国的5倍，持续下去可能很快重回第五。

印度卢比在截至3月的财政年度内对美元下跌约十分之一，接近11%，与美国相比在过去12个月印度和美国通胀率都略高于3%。按常识这会压缩印度与美国商品的实际对比价值，并推动实际有效汇率下滑，但该下滑中近三分之二在海湾能源危机前就已发生。

外国投资者持续抛售印度资产，2025年初以来债券和股票净流出约310亿美元，而前两年净流入则接近500亿美元；同时，国内散户推高估值，伊朗导致的下跌前，孟买Nifty 50市盈率约为26倍，而MSCI新兴市场基准篮子仅约17倍。印度缺乏能够吸引投资者的人工智能主题上市公司，像TCS这类大型IT咨询企业也在等待更直接的AI驱动再估值。

In the IMF’s April update to global economic statistics, Britain—about 70 million people—reclaimed the world’s fifth-largest economy spot, pushing India with a 1.45-billion population down to sixth place. This reversal is largely driven by a weak rupee, even though India is growing about five times faster than Britain and is likely to reclaim fifth place if trends continue.

The Indian rupee fell roughly a tenth against the dollar over the fiscal year to March, with an 11% drop despite both India and the U.S. having inflation just above 3% in the prior 12 months. That near-equal inflation means the move translated into a sharp real effective exchange-rate squeeze, and nearly two-thirds of that decline actually happened before the Gulf energy crisis.

Foreign investors have been exiting Indian assets, with about $31 billion net outflows in debt and equities since early 2025 versus nearly $50 billion net inflows in the previous two years, while domestic retail participants pushed valuations higher. Before the Iran-related slide, Mumbai’s Nifty 50 traded near 26 times earnings versus about 17 times in MSCI’s emerging-market benchmark, and India also lacks AI-exciting listed firms, leaving giants like TCS to wait for a clearer AI-led rerating.

Source: No respite for the rupee

Subtitle: MUMBAI India's weak currency reflects deeper problems than the Iran war

Dateline: The Economist May 2nd 2026