委内瑞拉产量自2000年代末以来下滑约三分之二至约100万桶/日（约占全球供应1%），但美国在12月实施的封锁及对油轮的扣押已令出口断崖式下跌，再加上稀释剂石脑油短缺，即便接收5000万桶以缓解库容，产量仍可能被迫降至70万桶/日以下。若制裁（含封锁）解除并进行基础检修，测算显示1至2年可增加约30万桶/日、到2027年底约150万桶/日，但仍远未充分动用约3000亿桶储量（约占全球五分之一），也难满足诸如为可产2万至5万桶/日资产募集20亿美元的投资推介。
Rystad估计到2030年将产量恢复至15年前水平需约1100亿美元资本开支，约为美国石油巨头在2024年全球合计投资额的两倍，而拥有约7万名员工的PDVSA及数以万计外流的专业人才进一步限制执行能力。国际能源署预计本十年供给长期过剩、油价可能向每桶约50美元回落（而旗舰新项目约需80美元才可融资），使回报受限；即便Kpler给出2028年1.7至1.8百万桶/日的高情景，地缘影响也有限，因为中国在2025年称委油占其进口不足4%，且其库存约12亿桶（约可覆盖110天进口）。
在1月3日马杜罗被抓获后，特朗普把委内瑞拉石油称为“失败”，并表示将投入“数十亿美元”重建，这呼应了当年征收资产后针对委内瑞拉及其国油PDVSA提出的约600亿美元索赔。1月6日他称委方将移交3000万至5000万桶原油（价值最高约30亿美元），1月7日其能源部长又称美国将“无限期”营销委内瑞拉原油，收益存入由美国政府控制的账户。
**Financial and workforce insights** By 2030, there's an expectation of $110 billion in capital expenditures, which is double the worldwide spending by major oil companies in 2024. The workforce for PDVSA has shrunk to approximately 70,000, with many skilled workers having left. The oil price is forecasted to be around $50 this year and next, while the breakeven point for projects is about $80. Kpler is optimistic about increasing output to between 1.7 and 1.8 million barrels per day by 2028.
**Reserves and imports context** Venezuela is estimated to hold around 300 billion barrels of oil reserves, accounting for about one-fifth of the world's total. However, China's share of oil imports is expected to be less than 4% by 2025, indicating significant storage capacity of 1.2 billion barrels that lasts about 110 days. Interestingly, the U.S. was importing about 500,000 barrels more daily during the early 2010s, reflecting different trends in demand and supply.
On January 6, it was announced that Venezuela would transfer 30 million to 50 million barrels of oil, valued at up to $3 billion. The following day, the energy secretary stated that the U.S. would indefinitely market Venezuelan crude, with proceeds being maintained in U.S.-controlled accounts.
Source: An American oil empire is a deeply flawed idea
Subtitle: Donald Trump’s ambitions are expansive. His plans are limited
Dateline: 1月 08, 2026 05:48 上午