文章聚焦于2025年公共数据的缺口:部分政府资料集消失,另一些因「2025年、由民主党主导的政府关门(称为史上最长)」而延宕与不完整。即使关门后补出的数字(例如较高的GDP成长、低于预期的通膨)开始出现,因为混用替代来源、口径不一,反而让比较更困难,突显即使短暂失去官方数据也会造成长期混乱。
作者用两个例子说明「口径」如何改变结论。其一是人口普查局的贫穷统计:2023到2024年,长者的官方贫穷率(OPM)从9.7%升至9.9%;但若把401(k)提领等「非经常性收入」纳入,实际可降到5.9%。其二是孕产妇死亡率:美国在2003年起于死亡证明加入「是否怀孕」勾选框,被认为推高了数字;例如2013年该勾选框竟在85岁以上死亡者中被使用了187次,显示定义与填报会严重影响统计。
文章也批评政治化会进一步侵蚀信任:川普政府时期,总统在8月一份疲弱就业报告后开除劳工统计局(BLS)局长Erika McEntarfer,并指控联准会主席鲍威尔操弄降息与通膨解读。同时,作者称NOAA不再追踪「十亿美元级」天灾,教育部数据发布也延迟,让外部问责更难。结论是:统计当然可改进、应并列多种指标(如CBO提供多情境预测),但若把不合意的数据视为可删可改,社会将只剩阴谋论与挑选式数字作为「现实」的量尺。
The piece argues that 2025 brought a worsening information vacuum: some federal datasets vanished and others became incomplete during the longest US government shutdown, leaving delayed releases that are hard to compare because they lean on substitute sources. Even when late numbers arrive—such as strong GDP growth and lower-than-expected inflation—the partial, mixed-method picture increases confusion and shows how damaging even temporary data losses can be.
It highlights how measurement choices change headline conclusions. For seniors’ poverty, Census OPM estimates rose from 9.7% in 2023 to 9.9% in 2024, but excluding “irregular income” like 401(k) withdrawals overstates hardship; including it drops the rate to 5.9%, while the alternative “NEWS” measure gets less attention. For maternal mortality, the US changed reporting in 2003 by adding a pregnancy checkbox on death certificates, widely seen as inflating counts; in 2013 it was used 187 times for deaths over age 85.
The author warns that politicizing or deleting data erodes accountability. Trump fired BLS Commissioner Erika McEntarfer after an August jobs report and accused Fed Chair Jerome Powell of misreading inflation and delaying rate cuts, while other tracking reportedly stopped or lagged (NOAA billion-dollar disasters; Education data). The prescription is not blind trust but transparency: publish alternative measures alongside legacy series (as CBO does with multiple scenarios) and resist treating disliked numbers as disposable, or conspiracies and cherry-picked stats become the only barometer of reality.