日本的和平主义禁忌正在快速松动：日本长期坚持的“国防开支不超过GDP的1%”禁令在2022年已被打破，而今年这一比例预计将接近2%，几乎翻倍。更关键的是，日本在上月首次部署了可打击敌方境外区域的远程反击导弹，4月21日新任首相竹内早苗宣布进一步放宽武器出口限制，显著扩大对外出售致命装备的范围。

政策转向的核心是地缘压力叠加供应风险：在更强势的中国与日益不确定的美国支持下，日本希望降低对外部供应链依赖并承担更大区域安全角色。政府认为扩大出口可促使国内军工企业提高产能、扩产并降低成本，但其长期只服务日本防卫省这一单一客户的结构性脆弱性仍在，1月审计显示已有118项约70亿美元军购订单在签约五年以上后仍未履约，且美国“海马威”导弹交付也因“伊朗战争”出现延迟。

此前日本对外军售长期仅限五类“非致命”用途（救援、运输、监视、预警和扫雷），如今改为允许对有防务科技协定的17个国家——包括美国、澳大利亚、印度和部分东南亚国家——出口致命武器；即便对冲突国仍原则上禁售，但可在日本安全利益需要时豁免。行业前景取决于能否在美国与韩国等既有强者竞争中站稳，未来更可能押注潜艇和舰船等有优势细分市场，并需解决国内劳动力短缺问题，同时把无人机、AI等新兴领域的初创企业纳入更广泛防务生态。

Japan’s pacifist constraints are loosening rapidly: a postwar rule capping defense spending at 1% of GDP was abandoned in 2022, and this year spending is expected to approach almost 2% of GDP, nearly doubling the share. More importantly, Japan deployed its first long-range counter-strike missiles last month, and on April 21 Prime Minister Takaichi Sanae announced a further relaxation of export controls, substantially expanding the ability to sell lethal weapons abroad.

The policy shift is driven by strategic pressure and supply risk, as a more assertive China and increasingly unreliable U.S. support push Tokyo to reduce dependence on foreign supply chains and play a larger regional security role. Officials argue that exports could force domestic defense firms to scale output and cut costs, but structural weakness persists after decades of serving a single buyer, Japan’s defense ministry; a January audit found 118 military orders worth about $7bn still unfilled five or more years after contracts were signed, while promised Tomahawk deliveries to Japan were delayed amid the Iran war.

For decades Japan restricted overseas arms sales to five non-lethal categories—rescue, transport, surveillance, warning, and mine-sweeping—yet now it allows lethal exports to 17 countries with defense-technology agreements such as the U.S., Australia, India, and some Southeast Asian states, with exceptions only for conflicts deemed necessary for Japan’s own security. Growth will depend on competing with major players like the U.S. and regional challengers such as South Korea, with firms likely to focus on strengths like submarines and ships, especially after Australia signed a $6.5bn order for Mitsubishi Heavy’s Mogami-class frigates, while also building domestic capacity in areas like drones and AI despite severe labor shortages.

Source: Why Japan is loosening restrictions on exports of lethal arms

Subtitle: Takaichi Sanae, the hawkish new prime minister, hopes to spur a defence industrial renaissance

Dateline: 4月 23, 2026 03:39 上午 | TOKYO