日本锦鲤出口激增，2024 年达到 72 亿日圆的新高，截至 9 月底已累计 61 亿日圆，较一年前成长 34%，全年有望逼近 100 亿日圆。作为日本最大产地的新潟县，已为 2032 财年设定 60 亿日圆的出口目标，较 2024 财年高出 50%，并在 2024 年 5 月阿根廷与 2025 年 1 月巴西完成检疫规定后，把南美视为下一个拓展重点。

需求正转向大型、高单价锦鲤，在 11 月新潟展会上，买家愿为单尾鱼支付最高 500 万日圆，一些欧洲业者甚至表示预算没有上限。然而，出口也面临风险，美国因唐纳德・川普关税政策带来压力，而美国占整体出口金额的 32.9%；与第二大市场中国之间日益紧张的关系也引发对其 20.4% 市场份额可能缩水的忧虑。

为打开遥远的南美市场，新潟正在测试方法，透过在注水塑胶袋中加入麻醉剂与吸收二氧化碳的材料，将活鱼安全运送时间从 48 小时延长到 72 小时，并计划最快在 2026 财年前后启动前往巴西与阿根廷的试飞。在生产端，团队训练以超音波影像为基础的 AI 系统，目标把目前仅有 40% 至 60% 的性别判识准确率提升到 80% 以上，以纾解人力短缺并守护专业技术。

Japan’s nishikigoi exports have surged, reaching a record 7.2 billion yen in 2024, with 6.1 billion yen logged by the end of September, 34% higher than a year earlier and on track to approach 10 billion yen for the full year. Niigata, the nation’s largest producer, has set a 6 billion yen export target for fiscal 2032, 50% above fiscal 2024, and is eyeing South America after quarantine rules were set in Argentina in May 2024 and Brazil in January 2025.

Demand is shifting toward large, high-priced carp, with buyers at a November Niigata trade show willing to pay up to 5 million yen for a single fish and some European firms saying they have no upper budget limit. However, exports also face risks from Donald Trump’s tariffs in the U.S., which accounts for 32.9% of export value, and from worsening relations with China, the second-largest market with a 20.4% share.

To unlock distant South American markets, Niigata is testing methods to extend safe transport times for live carp from 48 to 72 hours by adding anesthetic and carbon-dioxide-absorbing materials to water-filled bags, with trial flights to Brazil and Argentina planned as early as fiscal 2026. At the farm level, an AI system trained on ultrasound images aims to raise sex-identification accuracy from 40%-60% today to over 80%, easing labor shortages and preserving specialized skills.