压力已反映在硬数据上：在开普科勒尔，私人放贷机构对其于 2023 年融资的 2,000 处房产中有 7.4% 启动了止赎程序（Forecasa），而典型房贷的困境比例通常低于 2%。2025 年私人放贷机构的初始止赎申请达 326 户，约为 2 年前的 4x；全国同类申请在同一期间也上升 82%。产业扩张同时带来更宽松的条款与更广的分销，包括在 2024 年被评级机构视为多数属于投资等级的证券化产品；而资深 hard-money 业者则提到较旧的标准，例如 40% 头期款与约 13% 年利率，以限制损失。个案显示杠杆效应：一名投资者在 2022 年 5 月以每块低于 $50,000 买下 2 块地，并为每栋建案借入 $264,000；在延宕与成本超支后，他预期这 2 栋房子合计的价值将比他支付的金额少 $120,000。
开普科勒尔的下行被视为对较新私人放贷市场的一次考验，因为当工期滑落超过其约 1-year 的还款设计、未完工住宅的价值下探至接近土地价值时，放贷方与借款方都会暴露在风险中。当地指标凸显跌势：第三季开普科勒尔房价年减 11%（FHFA），11 月独栋住宅租金下跌 7%（Cotality），压缩退出价值与持有期间的经济性；放贷机构与建商愈来愈多透过完工、出租或转售停滞专案来处理重整。建商表示散户投资者普遍受挫，估计即使专案最终完工并售出，平均损失也约 $75,000；而这个数十年来行销佛州梦想的生态系（城市成立于 1957；建成 400 miles 的运河）如今又多了一层风险：当市场反转时，规模化信贷、证券化与高杠杆会放大冲击。
Private “easy-money” real estate loans helped fuel a pandemic-era homebuilding and flipping boom in places like Cape Coral, Florida (population 230,000), where investors could buy lots for around $50,000 cash and borrow the rest to build, then flip or rent. Unlike traditional “hard money” that demanded big down payments and charged high rates, newer private-lending products scaled rapidly, reaching more than $145 billion in 2025 (Forecasa), offering financing up to 90% of a project at rates as low as 8% annually. Deals were often underwritten to a projected finished value, leaving borrowers with an estimated 30% to 35% equity cushion if everything went right, but higher interest rates, rising insurance costs, and slowing demand turned that leverage into a problem as the market cooled.
Stress is showing up in hard numbers: in Cape Coral, private lenders began foreclosure proceedings on 7.4% of the 2,000 properties they financed in 2023 (Forecasa), versus typical mortgage distress of under 2%. Initial foreclosure filings by private lenders in 2025 hit 326 homes, about 4x the level 2 years earlier, and nationally such filings rose 82% over the same period. Industry expansion also brought looser terms and broader distribution, including securitizations that rating firms viewed as mostly investment grade in 2024, while veteran hard-money operators cite older standards like 40% down and roughly 13% annual rates to limit losses. Individual cases illustrate the leverage: one investor bought 2 lots in May 2022 for under $50,000 each and borrowed $264,000 per build; after delays and cost overruns, he expects the 2 homes to be worth $120,000 less combined than he paid.
The downturn in Cape Coral is framed as a test the newer private-lending market has not faced, with lenders and borrowers exposed when timelines slip beyond the roughly 1-year repayment design and unfinished homes fall toward land value. Local indicators underscore the slide: in the third quarter, home prices in Cape Coral fell 11% year over year (FHFA), and in November single-family rents dropped 7% (Cotality), pressuring exit values and hold-time economics; lenders and builders are increasingly managing workouts by finishing, renting, or reselling stalled projects. Builders report widespread retail-investor pain, estimating average losses around $75,000 even when projects do get completed and sold, while the ecosystem that marketed Florida dreams for decades (city founded 1957; 400 miles of canals built) now features a new layer of risk from scaled credit, securitization, and high leverage when markets turn.