佛罗里达州与德州吸引力下降，被归因于可负担性的反转：它们在疫情时期受益于房价上涨，但这些涨幅也侵蚀了其成本优势；而近期房价走软加上房屋保险成本上升，并未恢复过去的价值主张，尤其对来自密西根或俄亥俄等地的中产阶级退休族而言更是如此。文中称德州的国内净迁入为 20 年来最低，并将较弱的迁入描绘为对那些依赖吸引人口与工作来推动成长的州的拖累；佛罗里达州与德州在 2025 年合计仅新增 172,500 个工作，不到 2010s 多数年份典型增速的一半。文章也以劳动市场统计作为佐证：佛罗里达州失业率在 2025 年上升 0.9 个百分点；德州则上升 0.1 个百分点，达到 4-year 高点；并主张机会与可负担性下降也会让年轻家庭却步。
在上述背景下，阿拉巴马州、田纳西州与南卡罗来纳州被定位为相对赢家：按人均计算，据称阿拉巴马州在 2025 年吸引的搬迁者多于佛罗里达州、德州或亚利桑那州，而南卡罗来纳州则被形容为寻求改变的美国人最火热的目的地。文章将这些增长连结到都会层级的可负担性选择（例如，Spartanburg 相较 Atlanta 的拥堵与成本；以及 Baldwin County 提供类似墨西哥湾海滩、但比佛罗里达狭长地带部分地区更可负担）以及住房市场表现讯号；全国房地产经纪人协会（National Association of Realtors）指出，阿拉巴马州在 2025 年拥有房价增长最快的前 4 大都会区中的 2 个，且 NAR 也报告 2025 Q4 有 73% 的都会区房价上涨。随著二手房销售与房贷购屋申请上升，作者预测这些州在未来 3 years 将表现优于其他地区，同时提醒迁徙趋势相当细致，且正愈来愈由较小都会区之间的「找便宜」所驱动，而非单纯的沿海到 Sunbelt 二分法。
Using newly released US Census Bureau population estimates, the column argues that a stagnant US housing market has cooled both home transactions and the pandemic-era migration boom into Florida and Texas, and that the more instructive shift is rising interest in several midsized Southeast states. In the 2 years through June 2025, Alabama, Tennessee, and South Carolina posted higher migration than in the 2 years before COVID-19, while Florida and Texas saw sharp declines, implying their slowdown is not just cyclical but partly state-specific. With 2 full years of post-surge migration data now available, the author frames this as a preview of where the next housing-and-migration cycle could concentrate as resale activity begins to thaw.
Florida and Texas’s reduced pull is tied to an affordability reversal: they benefited from pandemic-era house-price gains, but those gains also eroded their cost advantage, and recent price softening plus rising home-insurance costs has not restored the previous value proposition, especially for middle-class retirees from places like Michigan or Ohio. Texas’s net domestic migration was described as the lowest in 20 years, and weaker in-migration is portrayed as a drag on states whose growth models depend on attracting people and jobs; Florida and Texas together added only 172,500 jobs in 2025, less than half the pace typical in much of the 2010s. Labor-market stats are used as supporting evidence: Florida’s unemployment rate rose 0.9 percentage points in 2025, while Texas’s rose 0.1 percentage point to a 4-year high, and the piece argues that diminished opportunity and affordability also discourage young families.
Against that backdrop, Alabama, Tennessee, and South Carolina are positioned as the relative winners: on a per-capita basis, Alabama reportedly drew more movers in 2025 than Florida, Texas, or Arizona, and South Carolina is characterized as the hottest destination for Americans seeking a change. The article links these gains to metro-level affordability plays (for example, Spartanburg versus Atlanta congestion and costs, and Baldwin County offering similar Gulf beaches with better affordability than parts of Florida’s panhandle) and to housing-market performance signals; the National Association of Realtors noted Alabama had 2 of the top 4 metros for home-price growth in 2025, and NAR also reported prices rose in 73% of metro areas in 2025 Q4. With existing-home sales and mortgage purchase applications rising, the author forecasts outperformance for these states over the next 3 years, while cautioning that migration is nuanced and increasingly driven by deal-seeking across smaller metros rather than a simple coastal-to-Sunbelt binary.