文章认为，在埃隆·马斯克公开提出 SpaceX 上市目标估值为 1.75 万亿美元之后，真正的问题是，预期2026年 AI 上市潮将按规模来衡量其意义。若 SpaceX、Anthropic 和 OpenAI 在今年或明年上市，那么三家公司合计估值可能会超过 3 万亿美元，远高于近期常见 IPO，并成为关于私有公司推迟上市公开问题的核心。
本文强调了由争夺纳入指数而推动的规则变化：3月30日，纳斯达克采纳了更快的准入标准，将成熟期要求从约3个月（约63个交易日）缩短到15个交易日，而 FTSE 讨论了5个交易日起步；指数也在讨论更低的流通股比例门槛。纳斯达克100有超过 6000 亿美元与被动基金挂钩，因此指数入选会迅速产生影响，因为它将一大笔委托驱动资金直接引流到这些公司。
作者看到两个负面趋势：较短的成熟期会在内部人抛售时把投资者推向波动，而低流通股发行在历史上长期跑输市场。纳斯达克拟允许新进公司按其公开流通股的三倍进行权重设置，在市场估值尚未确立前进一步放大其影响；而在 AI 热潮已使市场更为集中、技术利润率和估值争议加剧时，这种变化更容易放大波动。
The article argues that after Elon Musk publicly floated a $1.75 trillion target valuation for a SpaceX listing, the real significance is the scale of the likely AI IPO wave next year. If SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI go public this year or next, the three companies together could total more than $3 trillion, far above typical recent IPOs and central to renewed concern over private firms staying private longer.
The piece highlights index-rule changes driven by the race for inclusion: on March 30 Nasdaq adopted faster eligibility standards, cutting seasoning from about 3 months (roughly 63 trading days) to 15 trading days, while FTSE has floated a 5-day minimum, and the debate also covers lower free-float thresholds. More than $600 billion is tied to Nasdaq-100 passive funds, so index inclusion can quickly matter because it channels a large, mandate-driven flow of capital into these firms.
The authors identify two negative trends: shorter seasoning can force investors into volatility while insiders sell, and low-float offerings have historically underperformed over time. Nasdaq’s proposal to weight newcomers at up to three times their public float can amplify influence before market valuation is established, and with AI already increasing concentration and valuation and margin questions intensifying, this raises the risk of sharper swings and less diversified passive exposure.
Source: Index providers should not bend the rules for Elon Musk
Subtitle: They will only expose ordinary investors to unnecessary risks
Dateline: 4月 01, 2026 05:17 上午