过去二十年，最大的私募股权集团已从主要买卖公司转向贷款业务，阿波罗、黑石、卡莱尔和KKR的管理资产从十年前的8000亿美元增长到3.4万亿美元。未偿私人信贷约为1.5万亿美元，其中约三分之一面向个人投资者开放，使流动性管理压力上升。

投资者正在出现连环赎回：基金通常每季度仅允许最多5%的份额按账面价值赎回，但大型基金赎回请求已突破5%。这迫使管理人要么执行额度限制，要么放宽退场通道，从而引发估值高估与公允性疑虑。

与2008年不同，当前危机未必会从系统性崩溃起步，但外溢风险正在从银行转向保险公司；保险公司通过复杂证券化产品持有大量并购债务且许多已被私募机构持股。与此同时，这些私募股权公司今年市值已蒸发逾四分之一，融资环境将趋紧，公共债券利差已从年初的近历史低位抬升，数据中心债务扩张与地区战争可能进一步推高借贷成本并放缓相关技术扩散。

Over two decades, the largest private-equity firms shifted from mainly buying and selling companies to lending, and the assets managed by Apollo, Blackstone, Carlyle and KKR rose from $800 billion a decade ago to $3.4 trillion. Outstanding private-credit loans total about $1.5 trillion, with roughly one-third open to individual investors, while nearly one-third of lending sits in software firms vulnerable to AI disruption.

Funds now face a redemption squeeze: most allow withdrawals of up to 5% of holdings per quarter at book value, yet major funds have seen requests above that level, forcing managers either to impose gates or permit higher exits and invite valuation disputes. Losses and spillover risks are already visible: listed values of private-equity groups are down more than 25% this year, and insurers—exposed through securitised buyout debt and increasingly connected to private-market owners—are now a key stress channel.

As confidence weakens, borrowing costs are likely to rise across firms, since public debt spreads have already increased from near-record lows earlier this year. New issuance for the data-centre boom could push costs higher, and a fresh defaults wave like the mid-2010s shale episode could slow the spread of AI-linked technologies amid already tighter margins from the Middle East conflict.

Source: How worried should you be about private credit?

Subtitle: Its humbling could raise borrowing costs

Dateline: 4月 01, 2026 08:39 上午