美国在亚洲的陆地战争——越南、伊拉克和阿富汗——都远超最初预期的时长，文章警告当前围绕伊朗的筹划同样可能重演这一路径。特朗普在霍尔木兹海峡附近已增派成千上万军人，并威胁继续进行地面作战，甚至入侵哈尔格岛，而该岛承担伊朗约90%的石油出口。
文中称，伊朗现仍每日出口约240万到280万桶石油及精炼产品，若美军据守哈尔格岛，可能切断这批持续流动的收入；但要做到这一点并不只是海军陆战队和伞兵“上岛”，还可能要再占领更南方的贾斯克、拉万和锡里等终端并维持长期补给。该岛靠近伊朗本土、可被导弹和无人机覆盖，最近就有伊朗摧毁了一架美国E-3，显示美国占领方的高曝露风险；而若再发动针对约400公斤浓缩铀存储点的突击（包括伊斯法罕、纳坦兹和福尔多），同时同时行动三地会非常成问题。
作者进一步指出，美国和其盟友的军力正被消耗：已发射的“战斧”导弹超过850枚，超过2003年伊拉克战役使用量，且可能接近其可用全球库存的三分之一；并且E-3是“规模不大且在缩小”的预警机队的一部分。美国在海湾的巨大压力也可能拖累海军维护能力，而伊朗政权在长期高压环境下更能承受代价，对比下美国还面临8个月后国会中期选举的政治窗口风险。
America's land wars in Asia—in Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan—have repeatedly lasted much longer than first expected, and the piece argues that current planning against Iran risks repeating that pattern. Trump has already sent thousands of troops near the Strait of Hormuz, while threatening a land campaign that could include invading Kharg Island, the hub through which about 90% of Iran’s oil exports pass.
Iran still exports roughly 2.4 million to 2.8 million barrels per day of oil and refined products, so occupying Kharg could materially cut that cash flow, but not simply by landing Marines and paratroopers. It would also likely require controlling southern terminals like Jask, Lavan and Sirri under heavy resupply, drone and missile exposure, and a separate raid on about 400 kilograms of enriched uranium across Isfahan, Natanz and Fordow may be beyond practical capacity to execute simultaneously.
The text highlights compounding strain on U.S. and allied force structure: more than 850 Tomahawk missiles have already been fired, exceeding the total launched in Iraq in 2003 and possibly about one-third of available global stocks, while the downing of one E-3 from a small, shrinking fleet shows vulnerability. That attritional pressure on ships and maintenance, plus Iranian domestic resilience and a U.S. political calendar with midterms in 8 months, suggests a higher likelihood of strategic overreach and prolonged instability.
Source: The perils of a ground war in Ira
Subtitle: Donald Trump may send in troops. Does he know what to do with them?
Dateline: 4月 01, 2026 06:04 上午