这篇文章认为，美国对伊朗开战最初的逻辑是削弱伊朗并用军事优势和石油控制向中国与世界炫示力量，但一个月后，中国多数学者和官员仍把这场战争视为美国的重大战略误判，而非对其衰退的修正性展示。文中强调特朗普“无视专家建议、反复威胁且缺乏明确战略”，若伊朗陷入动荡或核进程反复，美国可能在中东陷入长期消耗，并面临再次开战的可能。
北京将战争解读为验证习近平“去危机依赖”的必要性，并以此推进其安全优先战略：截至目前已建成约13亿桶石油战略储备（可支撑数月进口），并扩展核电、太阳能、风能等发电结构，同时保留国内煤炭。中国还试图在稀土、关键药品分子、部分芯片和物流等领域建立新可用的“卡点”，并押注量子计算、机器人等新技术，同时通过参与海湾重建和绿色供应合同锁定收益。
然而中国并不乐观：他们担心若战争长期化，尽管其他国家更先受挫，能量和原材料价格上升、出口冲击和全球秩序受损会最终反噬中国增长前景。更深层焦虑在于对美国必然瓦解的假设——文章指出若美国持续适应并重新组织自身，反而可能在未来占优，而中国若因意识形态保守、人口老龄化并趋于封闭，可能在一个更混乱的国际环境中受损。
The article says the war’s original U.S. logic—weakening Iran, demonstrating oil leverage, and deterring China—appears, after a month, to be seen in Beijing as a strategic miscalculation rather than a coherent reset of power. Chinese diplomats, advisers, and scholars repeatedly describe Trump’s approach as impulsive and strategist-absent, warning that failed occupation conditions or renewed nuclear crises could trap Washington in years of regional conflict and repeated intervention.
Beijing interprets the war as vindication of Xi’s security-first push for self-reliance in critical inputs: China has built a 1.3bn-barrel crude reserve, enough for several months, while balancing nuclear, solar, wind, and domestic coal power. China is also cultivating leverage points beyond oil—such as rare earths, key pharmaceutical molecules, some chip segments, and logistics—while positioning to win Gulf reconstruction and green technology demand as instability, especially around the Strait of Hormuz, drives procurement.
The downside trend China watches is that prolonged conflict raises energy and raw-material costs, creates export harm, and may damage the rules-based global order from which China also benefits. Chinese experts identify a blind spot in assuming America becomes a permanently rogue power; the United States has shown repeated adaptive reinvention, whereas China’s aging, ideologically cautious system risks choosing isolation in an unstable world, where long-term weakness of global order could hurt China more than expected.
Source: How China hopes to win from the war
Subtitle: Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake
Dateline: 4月 01, 2026 06:04 上午