中国的贸易摩擦来自它卖得比买得多，而高家庭储蓄是核心原因之一；到2025年底，离开农村到城市工作的人员为1.31亿，更广义的“流动人口”超过3.57亿。2012-22年，持农村户口、住在城市的流动家庭储蓄率平均比类似城市户口家庭高6.8个百分点，反映出公共服务和社保准入不足带来的不安全感。
户口改革的官方门槛显示明显放松：平均城市中流动人口可落户概率从2011年的46.9%升至2024年的94.6%，但按GDP加权后降至不到80%。最大、最富城市仍严苛，北京仅0.19%，上海1.44%；东莞2018年称将“坚决取消”大学毕业生限制，但许多申请者仍需证明缴纳多年社保。
资格不等于实际落户：2017年调查显示，在落户概率高于50%的较容易城市中，不愿落户的流动人口多于愿意者，部分因为不想放弃农村土地权利。与此同时，户口变得“不那么必要”已使无城市户口与有城市户口居民的储蓄率差距从2014年的11.8个百分点缩至2022年的3.2个百分点，继续拆除城市“隐形墙”可提高消费、压低出口顺差并缓和贸易战压力。
China’s trade friction comes from selling more than it buys, and high household saving is one core cause; by the end of 2025, 131m people had left the countryside to work in cities, while the broader “floating population” exceeded 357m. In 2012-22, migrant households with rural hukou living in cities saved on average 6.8 percentage points more than similar households with urban hukou, reflecting insecurity from insufficient access to public services and social insurance.
Official hukou-reform thresholds show clear easing: the probability that the floating population in the average city could obtain local hukou rose from 46.9% in 2011 to 94.6% in 2024, but falls to less than 80% when weighted by GDP. The biggest and richest cities remain strict, with Beijing at only 0.19% and Shanghai at 1.44%; Dongguan said in 2018 it would “resolutely eliminate” restrictions for college graduates, yet many applicants still had to prove years of social-insurance payments.
Eligibility is not actual settlement: a 2017 survey found that in easier cities with settlement probabilities above 50%, migrants unwilling to settle outnumbered those willing, partly because they did not want to give up rural land rights. Meanwhile, making hukou “less necessary” has already narrowed the saving-rate gap between residents without and with urban hukou from 11.8 percentage points in 2014 to 3.2 points in 2022, and further dismantling cities’ “invisible walls” could raise consumption, reduce the export surplus and ease trade-war pressure.
Source: Without fanfare, China is making rural migrants’ lives easier
Subtitle: The notorious hukou system is being relaxed. Marx would approve
Dateline: 5月 28, 2026 03:25 上午