美国股指的纪录高位掩盖了上市萎缩：IPO数量从1990年代年均超过400宗降至过去十年的115宗，上市公司从1996年峰值8,000家降至去年的3,900家，而Jamie Dimon希望达到15,000家或更多。即将到来的SpaceX、OpenAI和Anthropic上市很庞大，SpaceX已申请或于6月融资约750亿美元，三者目标合计市值接近4万亿美元，最新私人估值已分别相当于美国第8、第14和第15大公司，而Databricks、Stripe和Anduril合计不到4,000亿美元。
这些巨型IPO不能修复市场，因为IPO回报高度偏斜：Jay Ritter的数据库显示，在1980至2022年间有30个年份，典型新上市公司三年回报跑输大盘。1990至1998年上市的初创公司中有48家、近4%在五年内较IPO价格上涨1,000%或更多，但2012年以来仅13家做到；Amazon自1997年上市后上涨超过26,000%，Nvidia自1999年上市后上涨525,000%，若SpaceX以1.75万亿美元估值上市，要复制Amazon需市值超过470万亿美元，要复制Nvidia需达到9000万亿美元。
根本趋势是公司更晚、更大才上市：科技初创公司上市年龄从1990年代约8岁升至近年来11岁，OpenAI今年11岁，SpaceX已24岁。即使SEC寻求放松披露并改为半年报，充足VC和私人股二级市场仍会保持私有化吸引力；PitchBook估计，2026年一季度VC支持公司的二级交易几乎翻倍至1,120亿美元，并首次超过IPO融资，所以除非AI赢家膨胀到千万亿级估值，大量上涨空间仍将留在私人市场。
American stock indices’ record highs hide listing shrinkage: IPOs fell from an annual average of over 400 in the 1990s to 115 in the past decade, and public companies dropped from a 1996 peak of 8,000 to 3,900 last year, while Jamie Dimon wants 15,000 or more. The coming SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic listings are huge, with SpaceX filing to raise perhaps $75bn in June and the trio targeting a combined market value near $4trn; their latest private valuations already rank as America’s 8th-, 14th- and 15th-largest firms, while Databricks, Stripe and Anduril together are worth less than $400bn.
These mega-IPOs cannot fix the market because IPO returns are extremely skewed: Jay Ritter’s database shows that in 30 years between 1980 and 2022, the typical newly listed firm underperformed the broader market over three years. Among startups listed from 1990 to 1998, 48, or nearly 4%, gained 1,000% or more from their IPO price within five years, but only 13 since 2012 did so; Amazon is up over 26,000% since its 1997 listing and Nvidia 525,000% since 1999, meaning SpaceX at a $1.75trn listing value would need to exceed $470trn to match Amazon and $9 quadrillion to match Nvidia.
The underlying trend is that firms list later and larger: tech startups’ listing age rose from about eight years in the 1990s to 11 in recent years, with OpenAI turning 11 and SpaceX already 24. Even if the SEC eases disclosures and permits six-month reporting, abundant VC and private-share secondary markets will preserve the appeal of staying private; PitchBook estimates secondary deals for VC-backed firms nearly doubled to $112bn in Q1 2026 and exceeded IPO fundraising for the first time, so unless AI winners swell to quadrillion-dollar valuations, much of the upside will remain in private markets.
Source: Giga-IPOs are a symptom of public markets’ giga-problem
Subtitle: The incredible shrinking stockmarket
Dateline: 5月 28, 2026 05:19 上午