凯文·沃什在5月22日宣誓就职，成为近40年来首位在白宫宣誓的美联储主席；特朗普预言利率会迅速下降，但自1月提名以来，伊朗战争推高能源价格，使截至4月的三个月CPI年化上涨7.3%，剔除食品和能源的核心CPI为3.2%，而美联储偏好的基础通胀指标更热。

通胀范围很广：消费篮子中超过一半类别今年上涨3%或以上；剔除能源和住房的“超级核心”服务价格过去一年上涨3.2%并在近几个月加速；PCE中的耐用品价格第一季度年化上涨7.7%，而2015-19年平均每年下降1.7%；基于四项指标的六个月年化基础通胀估计为3.3%，高于2015-19年的2.0%平均水平，且截尾均值指标正在加速。

预期和市场都转向鹰派：密歇根大学5月调查显示，五年期通胀预期为3.9%，比2025年1月高近1个百分点；纽约联储4月直接提问的五年期通胀中位数也高于3.8%；投资者已从预期今年降息一到两次转为定价加息，并给两次或更多加息约25%的概率；三名美联储同僚4月异议要求取消宽松倾向，沃勒5月22日表示赞同，使沃什在9月和中期选举前受到挤压。

Kevin Warsh was sworn in on May 22, becoming the first Fed chair in nearly 40 years to take the oath at the White House; Trump predicted rates would fall quickly, but since the January nomination the Iran war has lifted energy prices, pushing CPI up at a 7.3% annualised pace in the three months to April, with core CPI excluding food and energy at 3.2% and the Fed’s preferred underlying gauge hotter.

Inflation is broad: more than half the consumption basket is up 3% or more this year; “super-core” services excluding energy and housing rose 3.2% over the past year and accelerated recently; durable-goods prices in PCE rose at a 7.7% annualised pace in Q1, versus an average 1.7% annual fall in 2015-19; a four-measure, six-month annualised estimate puts underlying inflation at 3.3%, above the 2.0% 2015-19 average, with trimmed-mean measures accelerating.

Expectations and markets have turned hawkish: Michigan’s May survey put five-year expected inflation at 3.9%, nearly 1 percentage point above January 2025; the New York Fed’s direct April five-year median was also above 3.8%; investors moved from expecting one or two cuts this year to pricing a hike and about a 25% chance of two or more; three Fed colleagues dissented in April to drop the easing bias, and Waller agreed on May 22, squeezing Warsh before September and the midterms.

Source: Kevin Warsh’s troublesome inflation in-tray

Subtitle: The new Fed chair will struggle to appease his colleagues, the market and Donald Trump all at once

Dateline: 5月 28, 2026 05:19 上午 | Washington, DC