赞比亚的脆弱性部分源自经济结构。该国对 China Exim 的债务超过 4 十亿美元，是其最大债权人；在 2026 年会议取消前几天，Zambia Development Agency 又与 China Machinery Engineering Corp 签署 1.5 十亿美元的电力协议，拟扩增 900 兆瓦电力，尽管可行性研究尚未开始。会议场地 Mulungushi International Conference Center 也曾获中国政府资金升级。文章认为，这不太像明显强迫，更像 quiet compliance：依赖中国融资的国家会先行调整政策以避免冲突。
同样的模式也出现在 Taiwan 外交孤立上。4 月，台湾总统 Lai Ching-te 计划访问 Eswatini 时，Seychelles、Mauritius 与 Madagascar 撤回了领空许可权，并由中国公开称赞该行为。Eswatini 因此成为唯一在 China 新非洲关税优惠计划中被排除的经济体。Asia Society 的公共舆论数据（2,500 项调查、涵盖160个国家）显示，在受 China 影响最显著的 10 国中有 4 国位于非洲：Nigeria、Zimbabwe、Algeria 与 South Africa；此外，还包括多家航空公司调整 Taiwan 的网站称谓、台湾在世界卫生大会的受限角色，以及奥运会使用 Chinese Taipei 的命名。随著本周 Xi Jinping 与 Donald Trump 会晤，Taiwan 与 Japan 及其他伙伴担忧，美国若以对 China 的贸易让步换取政策转向，将使第三方国家受压力的情况从非洲扩展到更高层级的大国互动。
China’s lending and trade ties are giving it wider leverage over partner states. A sharp example is RightsCon’s cancellation in Zambia. The host government said it postponed the summit to align with “national values,” while Access Now said officials in Lusaka described pressure from China after the group planned Taiwan activist participation. Beijing denied involvement and Lusaka repeated its official line, yet the case suggests that crossing China’s Taiwan red lines can carry real economic and diplomatic penalties.
Zambia’s vulnerability is partly economic. It owes more than $4 billion to China Exim, its largest creditor, and days before the 2026 summit was called off, the Zambia Development Agency signed a $1.5 billion power agreement with China Machinery Engineering Corp. to add 900 megawatts, even though feasibility studies had not started. The conference venue, Mulungushi International Conference Center, also had Chinese-financed upgrades. The article argues this is less overt coercion and more quiet compliance: states dependent on Chinese finance may preemptively align decisions to avoid conflict.
The same pattern extends to Taiwan diplomacy. In April, Taiwan’s President Lai Ching-te’s planned visit to Eswatini was delayed after Seychelles, Mauritius, and Madagascar revoked overflight rights, and China praised the move. Eswatini thus became the only African economy excluded from China’s tariff-free Africa trade scheme. Asia Society data from 2,500 survey results across 160 countries shows that 4 of the 10 countries most affected by China are in Africa: Nigeria, Zimbabwe, Algeria, and South Africa; other signs include airlines changing Taiwan naming on websites, Taiwan’s restricted role at the Health Assembly, and Olympic branding as Chinese Taipei. As Xi Jinping meets Donald Trump this week, Taiwan and Japan and other partners fear that U.S. concessions to China on trade in exchange for policy shifts would spread pressure from African host states to high-level great-power politics.