台湾与南韩股票衍生品交易中，做空买方推升了期权需求，导致隐含波动率上升。就Taiex与KOSPI 200而言，其隐含波动率相对于S&P 500已接近高位，尽管Cboe Volatility Index已跌回12个月均值以下。Samsung Securities的Jun Gyun称，这种行情是对先前趋势的极端反转，并指出存在“vol up, spot up”格局，可能会持续到出现盘整为止。JPMorgan也提到台湾与南韩的杠杆ETF资金规模已达到高峰，监管批准单一股票挂牌交易后，可能进一步推高因资金流而放大的行情。
在Societe Generale，KOSPI 200与S&P 500之间12个月方差利差已达到极端水平；他们认为要出现实质逆转，必须先有更温和的油价与地缘政治环境并且科技AI涨势暂停，然而目前看不到此情况。JPMorgan的策略师看好iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF，预期在AI主题、较有利的宏观背景及企业基本面支撑下新兴市场仍将跑赢。同时，受即将举行Donald Trump与Xi Jinping峰会、AI政策议题升温影响，投资者提高了对美国上市中国ETF的看涨头寸。JPMorgan策略师Tony Lee则建议Taiex买权价差或以Taiex、KOSPI 200、Nikkei-225作为worst-of组合，押注AI硬体硬件板块。策略师补充指出，US large-cap tech、南韩记忆体与元件供应商及台湾半导体生态系统呈现同向，AI硬件供应瓶颈暴露越高，财报交付越强，台湾因此是AI硬体主题的高效指数代理。
As market attention shifts away from the Iran war, investors and strategists are looking for the next equity leg up, and many have moved to Asia. South Korea and Taiwan are the strongest performers globally this month; the Kospi is up 78% year-to-date and both markets are beneficiaries of AI-led enthusiasm anchored by Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. In contrast, India remains one of the laggards: the S&P BSE Sensex is down 9.3% this year, among the worst globally, with high oil dependence, limited AI exposure, and a currency near record lows.
Equity-derivatives strategists are increasing bullish bets as traders chase the rally, which pushes up option costs. Taiwan and Korea now show rising implied volatility, with Taiex and Kospi 200 near peak levels versus the S&P 500 index, even while the Cboe Volatility Index has retreated below its one-year average. Samsung Securities’ Jun Gyun calls the move an extreme reversal from prior trends and says a “vol up, spot up” pattern is likely to continue until consolidation appears. The surge in retail access has also expanded with Interactive Brokers opening direct routes for US clients, while JPMorgan notes leveraged ETF assets at record highs and expects further growth after authorities approved local listings for single-stock products, potentially prolonging flow-driven overshoots.
At Societe Generale, the 12‑month variance spread between the Kospi 200 and S&P 500 is at extreme levels, and they do not yet advise positioning for a reversal unless oil and geopolitical conditions improve and the tech rally pauses in an orderly manner. JPMorgan recommends bullish structures on the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF, and ahead of the Donald Trump–Xi Jinping summit investors added call spreads on US-traded Chinese ETFs amid expected AI-policy emphasis. Tony Lee and the JPMorgan team also advised call spreads on the Taiex or worst-of calls on Taiex, Kospi 200, and Nikkei-225, arguing that earnings remain strongest where AI hardware bottlenecks are most concentrated and that Taiwan is the most efficient index proxy for hardware-led AI earnings.