然而，本季度电池部署却出现意外下滑，第一季较去年同期下降15%，同比到8.8GWh，与多数分析师预期增长不符。公司未给出明确原因；这类大项目天生易出现波动，而极端冬季天候可能拖延 Megapack 大型储能工程，使季度数据看起来「杂讯化」。分析师将在最新财报电话会议中观察此跌幅是一次性因素，还是成为长期趋势的前兆。
未来短期恢复增长的关键，被寄望于稍后推出的 Megapack 3（由休士顿地区的新建2亿美元工厂供应，输出约提高四分之一）与「Megablock」四机组组合方案。Tesla 已于全球完成超过2100个商用与公用电网级项目，在北美约占40%市场份额，远高于 Sungrow 的10%。在中国电池的进口关税高达43.6%的背景下，Tesla 于内华达建成具备7GWh装机能力的新电芯工厂，并签有43亿美元（4.3 billion）与 LG Energy Solution 的供货协议，位于Lansing，预计2027年量产。BNEF统计，至今资料中心现场储能达51.5GWh（已公告、在建或运转），而Tesla去年向 xAI 出售了4.3亿美元 Megapacks，显示需求正在从传统电网项目外溢到资料基础设施。
Tesla’s battery and solar-related businesses have become the main growth engine as EV sales cooled: combined revenue rose from $2.8 billion in 2021 to $12.8 billion in 2025, a 358% increase. Annual energy-storage deployments doubled in 2024 and rose another 49% in 2025 to 46.7 GWh. By contrast, core auto revenue fell from $82.4 billion in 2023 to $69.5 billion in 2025, amid stronger competition, policy pressure, and consumer backlash against Elon Musk’s politics. Tesla still leads U.S. EV sales, and its stock still reached $489.88 per share in December, reflecting continued hope for future growth lines.
Yet first-quarter battery deployments unexpectedly fell 15% year-on-year, to 8.8 GWh, against analysts’ growth expectations. The company gave no clear explanation; the business is project-based and inherently lumpy, and extreme winter weather could have delayed large Megapack projects, making quarterly figures noisy. Investors now await Tesla’s upcoming earnings call to judge whether the decline is a one-time glitch or the start of a broader slowdown.
Near-term recovery is now tied to Megapack 3, expected from a new Houston-area $200 million facility and estimated to deliver about 25% more power than its predecessor, and to a “Megablock” configuration linking four Megapacks. Tesla now has more than 2,100 global commercial and utility projects and holds about 40% of the North American market versus Sungrow’s 10%. With tariffs on China-built batteries at 43.6%, Tesla is strengthening supply: its Nevada cell line has 7 GWh installed capacity, and it has a $4.3 billion agreement with LG Energy Solution in Lansing starting in 2027. BNEF tracks 51.5 GWh of data-center storage already announced, under construction, or operational, and Tesla sold $430 million in Megapacks to xAI, showing demand extending beyond grid projects to AI data infrastructure.