2015年末，刘益谦用美国运通卡为莫迪利亚尼1917年的《Nu Couché》支付了1.7亿美元，这在当时是拍卖史上第二高的成交价，成为2000年代初启动的地产繁荣所催生财富的象征；到2023年他将39件藏品送拍，其中10件流拍，其余也低于预期成交价，而其天茂集团在连续两年亏损后于9月从深交所退市。

2000年至2020年，MM中国艺术价格指数约上涨15倍，该指数追踪327件中国艺术家作品（1988—2022年间多次转手的成交价），但最新读数已回落到约2009年的水平，而平均房价也跌回约2016年的水平，这意味着艺术品价格被“倒拨”到15年以上前。中国境内艺术品销售额在2024年同比下降31%，且周春芽作品的成交额在2024年同比下跌43%。

除地产之外，疫情冲击与更严的政治氛围及资本管制也压制了大额购买：个人每年合法进出境资金上限仅5万美元，并且到2017年许多收藏家已需要分期付款，而如今一些首次买家可能被拒绝获批大额海外汇款。房价可能还会再跌约半个十年，但观察者预计若房地产以外行业的新财富在2026年推动交易，艺术与地产或将首次在约25年里出现明显“脱钩”。

In late 2015, Liu Yiqian paid $170m on an Amex card for Modigliani’s 1917 “Nu Couché,” then the second-highest auction price, emblematic of wealth from an early-2000s property boom; by 2023 he auctioned 39 works, with 10 unsold and the rest below estimates, and his Tianmao Group delisted in September after two straight years of losses.

From 2000 to 2020, the MM Chinese Art Price Index rose about 15-fold, tracking 327 Chinese artworks (1988–2022 repeat-sale prices), but the latest readings have slid to roughly 2009 levels while average home prices have fallen back to about 2016 levels, implying a >15-year price rewind for art. Within China, art sales fell 31% in 2024 year on year, and Zhou Chunya’s transaction values dropped 43% in 2024.

Beyond property, pandemic disruption and tighter politics and capital controls suppressed big-ticket buying: individuals can legally move only $50,000 in or out per year, and by 2017 many collectors needed instalment payments, with some first-time buyers now denied large overseas transfers. Property prices may keep falling for another half-decade, yet observers expect a possible rebound in 2026 if new wealth from sectors outside real estate drives transactions, potentially decoupling art from property for the first time in roughly 25 years.

Source: How China’s property crisis helped crash its art market

Subtitle: A gold-framed view into the world of China’s wealthy

Dateline: 12月 30, 2025 05:49 上午 | Shanghai