核心商品通膨（core goods inflation）作为 CPI 中最受关税曝险的区块，在 Trump 就任后上行，于 4 月 2 日后加速，并在 9 月以约 1.5% 年增率见顶，之后以三个月年化口径明显降温。核心商品约占 CPI 的五分之一，通常持平至温和通缩，但在高点时对已公布通膨的贡献达 29 个基点。New York Fed 的 President John Williams 估计影响更大，约增加 0.5 个百分点，意味著 12 月 2.7% 的 CPI 在无关税下可能约为 2.2%–2.4%。
这额外的通膨延后了实质所得修复：以通膨调整后的平均时薪在 2025 年成长 1.1%，与 Joe Biden 任期最后一年相同，而价格上涨集中打击必需品，例如儿童服饰、工具与户外设备、家具与寝具、以及汽车零件。关税亦促使 Federal Reserve 对降息更审慎，因其提高通膨预期失锚的疑虑；经济学家先前预期「目前」的 fed funds rate 约为 3%–3.25%，但实际高出约 0.5 个百分点。大型 S&P 500 企业整体承受较佳；ADP National Employment report 显示，员工少于 50 人的公司在过去一年私部门薪资就业呈持平至负成长。
Bloomberg Opinion (Jonathan Levin) argues that the Trump administration’s “Liberation Day” tariffs (April 2, 2025) were not harmless even though the US avoided recession and a headline inflation spike. Tariff rates reached the highest in more than a century and, after frequent changes, remained near the highest in eight decades. The burden fell disproportionately on small businesses and paycheck-to-paycheck consumers, while also damaging US relations with allies and trading partners. Published January 16, 2026 18:00 UTC+8 (original: 6:00 PM GMT+8).
Core goods inflation, the CPI segment most exposed to tariffs, rose as Trump took office, accelerated after April 2, and peaked in September at about 1.5% year over year, then cooled on a three-month annualized basis. Core goods are roughly one-fifth of CPI and usually flat to mildly deflationary, yet at the peak they added 29 basis points to reported inflation. New York Fed President John Williams estimates a larger effect—around 0.5 percentage point—implying December’s 2.7% CPI might have been ~2.2%–2.4% without tariffs.
That extra inflation helped delay real-income recovery: inflation-adjusted average hourly earnings grew 1.1% in 2025, matching the final year of Joe Biden’s presidency, while price increases hit essentials such as children’s clothing, tools/outdoor equipment, furniture/bedding, and motor-vehicle parts. Tariffs also influenced the Federal Reserve’s rate-cut caution by raising fears of de-anchored expectations; economists once expected a 3%–3.25% fed funds rate “by now,” but it is ~0.5 point higher. Large S&P 500 firms coped better; ADP reports firms with <50 workers saw private payrolls flat-to-negative over the past year.