中国政府要求国内航空公司将对日本的航班削减延长至 2026 年 3 月，标志双方摩擦进入长期化阶段。旅行需求已在先前发布的旅行警告后下滑，航班计划亦出现持续收缩。12 月中日航班数量较 10 月下降逾 20%，并预计年末前将有超过 50% 的航线被取消。至少 12 条往返上海、广州、南京等城市与日本名古屋、福冈、札幌等地的航线已被取消。潜在游客的退订数据已延伸至 2026 年 4 月，显示冲击正跨越春节旺季并呈现持续性。

取消潮对日本造成显著经济损失。China Trading Desk 估计，从现在至今年底，日本可能损失高达 12 亿美元的中国游客消费；若当前节奏持续至 2026 年，累计损失可达 90 亿美元。行业分析指出，这已从“年终冲击”演变为“不再被视为短期事件”，预期全面下行。中国东方航空受影响最大，其每年往返日本航班约 16,000 架次，航空公司正通过每周临时削减或以窄体机替代宽体机等方式减少供给。

航线调整的指令是在日本首相高市早苗关于台湾的言论引发北京不满后发布，并可能根据外交变化随时调整。调整窗口跨越航空冬夏季换季节点（3 月末），使供应收缩至少持续至春节与换季后。持续的政府管控与需求收缩预示中日航空往来将在未来数月持续低迷，航空公司正被赋予自主裁减数量与航线的权限。

China has instructed domestic airlines to extend reductions in flights to Japan through March 2026, signaling expectations of a prolonged diplomatic dispute. Travel demand had already weakened following Beijing’s prior travel warning, and scheduled China–Japan flights for December are down more than 20% versus October, with over 50% of routes expected to be canceled by year-end. At least 12 routes linking cities such as Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Nanjing to Nagoya, Fukuoka, and Sapporo have already been cut. Booking cancellations now extend into April 2026, indicating that the impact spans the Lunar New Year peak season and is becoming persistent.

The economic losses for Japan are substantial. China Trading Desk estimates up to $1.2 billion in lost Chinese visitor spending between now and the end of the year; if cancellations continue at the current pace through 2026, cumulative losses could reach $9 billion. Analysts note that the situation has shifted from a “year-end shock” to a long-term downturn in expectations. China Eastern Airlines is the most exposed mainland carrier, with roughly 16,000 annual flights to Japan, and airlines are implementing weekly ad-hoc cuts or downgrading widebody aircraft to smaller narrowbody planes.

The directive followed comments on Taiwan by Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi that angered Beijing and may be adjusted depending on diplomatic developments. Extending reductions through the late-March winter–summer schedule boundary ensures supply contraction through the New Year travel period and beyond. With both administrative restrictions and demand falling, China–Japan aviation links are set to remain depressed for months as carriers receive discretion on which flights and how many to cut.