东京新建公寓价格高涨带动短期转售激增。2024 年上半年，东京 23 区满足 40 平方米以上条件的新建大规模公寓中共有 575 套在一年内被转售，占全部销售量的 9.9%，较 2023 年全年比例（约 4%）翻倍，远高于过去多年约 2% 的水平。短炒现象在市中心更突出：23 区整体一年内转售率为 9.3%，而千代田、中央、港、新宿、文京、涩谷等核心区达到 12.2%。海外买家占整体购买的 3.5%，数量虽小但被政府列为监测对象。国土交通大臣指出需求之外的投机交易“不受欢迎”。

行业已推出多项抑制投机措施。日本不动产协会宣布禁止在正式交付前转售新房、要求从签约到登记的申请人姓名一致，并限制抽签中可登记与出售的单位数量。三井不动产、三菱地所、住友不动产等八大开发商将分区域实施这些规定。例如，三井不动产住宅规定其“Central Garden 月岛 The Tower”项目不得在 2029 年 3 月交付前转售。由于这些行业规则仅在交付后生效，其实际效力可能有限，更多发挥心理震慑作用。

房价上涨推动投机空间扩大。10 月东京新建公寓均价同比上涨 18.3%，达到 1.5313 亿日元（98.2 万美元），受建筑成本上升、土地稀缺以及双职工家庭增多等供需因素共同驱动。若未来价格继续攀升，可能引发更多政策呼声，包括刺激二手房流通等措施以缓解市场紧张和遏制短期炒作。

Tokyo’s condominium boom has triggered a surge in short-term flipping. In the first half of 2024, 575 newly built units of 40 square meters or larger in the 23 wards were resold within a year, amounting to 9.9% of such sales—more than double the full-year 2023 share and far above the long-standing level of around 2%. Resale activity is concentrated in central districts: while the overall one-year resale rate was 9.3%, it rose to 12.2% in Chiyoda, Chuo, Minato, Shinjuku, Bunkyo, and Shibuya. Overseas buyers accounted for 3.5% of new-condo purchases. The land and transport minister warned that demand-detached speculation is “undesirable.”

The industry has introduced curbs to temper speculative activity. The Real Estate Companies Association of Japan announced rules banning resale before handover, requiring identical applicant names from contract to registration, and limiting registrations and sales through lotteries. Eight major developers—including Mitsui Fudosan, Mitsubishi Estate, and Sumitomo Realty—will apply these measures selectively. Mitsui Fudosan Residential barred resale of units in its Central Garden Tsukishima The Tower project before the scheduled March 2029 handover. Because RECAJ rules take effect only after transfer, their practical impact is uncertain and may function mainly as psychological deterrence.

Rapid price gains underpin the flipping wave. In October, average new-condo prices in Tokyo rose 18.3% year over year to ¥153.13 million ($982,000), driven by higher construction costs, land shortages, and rising dual-income households. If prices keep climbing, pressure may grow for further interventions, including measures to promote pre-owned home sales to ease tight supply and reduce speculative churn.