文章以40岁后常规检查(乳房摄影、前列腺关注、之后十年开始大肠镜)为引子,质疑医疗是否把资源用在「中年过度检查」而忽略可能更早发病的族群。Eric Topol 主张以AI辅助医疗、生物工程与「抗发炎」观念,重新把重点放在延长可健康生活的时间。
Topol区分寿命(lifespan)与健康寿命(health span):美国人平均健康寿命约63–65岁,而平均寿命约80岁,意味著末段约15年常在较差健康状态下度过;他引用一项WHO统计称,多数人在65岁后仅有一次「健康生日」。他指出65岁以上的「wellderly」与有重大慢病者基因差异不大,关键更像是免疫系统与生活方式。
他强调可量化的「器官时钟」与生物标记(如p-tau217)可在阿兹海默症风险出现前10、15甚至20年示警。GLP-1药物仍在「早期局」,并有研究预计明年初检验:对具有易感性、且在50岁前开始用药的人,是否可能预防阿兹海默症。Topol也看好AI:能批量读病历、从视网膜影像与「数十亿」资料点提前辨识心血管、帕金森或胰脏癌等风险,且成本较低。
The piece questions today’s age-based screening timeline (e.g., more attention after 40; colonoscopies in the following decade) and argues that medicine may overtest many middle-aged people while missing earlier risk in others. Cardiologist Eric Topol says AI-assisted medicine, bioengineering, and a stronger focus on inflammation could reshape how we age.
Topol distinguishes lifespan from health span and cites a stark gap in the US: health span is roughly 63–65 years, while lifespan is about 80, leaving around 15 years in poorer health. He points to a World Health Organization statistic that most older adults may have only one “healthy birthday” after age 65. He argues genetics explains less than expected; immune health and lifestyle matter more.
He highlights newer quantification tools—“organ clocks” and biomarkers such as p-tau217—that can flag Alzheimer’s risk 10, 15, even 20 years ahead. He calls GLP-1 drugs “early innings,” noting a study planned for early next year on whether starting before 50 could help prevent Alzheimer’s in predisposed people. He’s bullish on AI that can scan records, spot lab trends, and use retinal images plus billions of chart data points to detect risks for vascular disease, Parkinson’s, Alzheimer’s, or even pancreatic cancer earlier and at lower cost.