在中欧贸易方面，2025 年中国对欧盟顺差约 3,000 亿美元。欧盟在 2023–2024 年对 7 类产品裁定最终反倾销税，但进口量在其中 4 类仍上升；例如「bulb flats」进口量增加 68%，聚酯纤维纱线增加 210%。电动车也出现类似情况：对 BYD Atto 3 而言，仅汇率变动就让 2025 年每辆车较 2024 年多出约 1,669 欧元（约 1,900 美元）利润。
自 2025 年初以来，汇率因素约占「进口量与进口金额差距扩大」的一半；第三季欧盟自中国进口量年增 7%，但进口金额仅增 0.2%。这被形容为对出口商的隐性补贴，并推升欧盟在 2026 年前面临更强硬选项：把汇率低估纳入既有工具、或采可随中国国内价格调整的全面性关税；同时也有人主张改用较不受价格/汇率影响的采购「非价格」与韧性标准，以及建立监测市场扭曲的资讯中枢，并推进预计于 1 月公布的产业加速法案。
Rhodium Group estimates the yuan fell 8.2% against the euro in nominal terms over the past year, with a larger real decline once inflation differences are considered. It argues that even duties set to offset “non‑market pricing” can be neutralized if euro‑denominated import prices keep dropping after the duty is imposed.
The EU’s trade defenses face unfavorable arithmetic amid a 2025 China‑EU trade surplus of about $300 billion. Although the Commission imposed definitive anti‑dumping duties on seven products in 2023–2024, import volumes still rose in four; Rhodium cites a 68% jump in bulb flats and a 210% rise in polyester yarn. In EVs, exports to Europe have returned to pre‑duty levels; for BYD’s Atto 3, the exchange rate alone is estimated to add about €1,669 ($1,900) profit per vehicle in 2025 versus 2024.
Since early 2025, currency effects account for roughly half of the widening gap between EU import volumes and values from China; in Q3, volumes rose 7% year on year while values increased just 0.2%. The debate centers on scaling beyond product‑by‑product cases: incorporate measures of undervaluation into existing tools, adopt an across‑the‑board tariff linked to China’s domestic prices, or lean more on procurement non‑price and resilience criteria alongside new monitoring and forthcoming industrial measures.
