经济学家将2025年的韧性归因于在美国关税前的提前出口，以及对消费的增量支持，并带来部分上调（例如上调0.2个百分点至4.9%）。但内需仍偏弱：11月社会消费品零售总额同比仅增1.3%，且已连续6个月放缓；房价下跌被预期将延续至2026年。固定资产投资在1–11月同比下降2.6%，较1–10月的-1.7%进一步走弱。
10月美中关税缓和被视为温和利多，但分析人士仍提示地缘政治脆弱，以及需要在抑制产能过剩与保持创新之间取得平衡。2026年官方增长目标大概率在3月公布，有观点预期仍会设在「约5%」，尽管不少私人预测低于5%。汇率方面，预期偏向人民币缓步升值：对2026年底的平均预测为1美元兑7.00元（此前为7.06），2027年底平均为6.98，部分与对联准会降息的预期相关，但人民币过度走强可能挤压出口商利润。
A Nikkei survey of 21 economists sees China’s real GDP growing 4.9% in 2025 on average, close to the government’s “around 5%” goal, then slowing to 4.5% in 2026 (range 4%–5%). For Oct–Dec, the mean forecast is 4.4% year on year, 0.4 percentage point lower than the prior quarter; seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter growth is 1.0%, down 0.1 point.
Economists attribute 2025 resilience to front-loaded exports ahead of U.S. tariffs and incremental support for consumption, with some upgrades (e.g., +0.2 point to 4.9%). Yet domestic demand remains weak: retail sales rose only 1.3% year on year in November and have slowed for six straight months, while falling home prices are expected to persist through 2026. Fixed-asset investment in Jan–Nov fell 2.6% year on year, worsening from -1.7% in Jan–Oct.
The October U.S.-China tariff easing is viewed as a modest tailwind, but analysts still flag fragile geopolitics and the need to balance overcapacity controls with innovation. The 2026 official target is likely announced in March, with some expecting “around 5%” despite sub-5% private forecasts. Currency expectations tilt to gradual yuan appreciation: end-2026 consensus averages 7.00 per dollar versus 7.06 previously, and end-2027 averages 6.98, partly tied to anticipated Fed rate cuts, though an overly strong yuan could squeeze exporters.
