越南的苏林将于5月29日在香格里拉对话发表讲话，届时他是该国近四十年来最强势的领导人：他1月连任共产党总书记，上月又出任国家主席，是自1986年以来首位完整任期同时担任这两个职位的越南领导人。他的权力巩固符合越南、柬埔寨、泰国和缅甸整个东南亚大陆的政权更新模式，此前这些国家经历了多年精英内斗或政治挑战。

柬埔寨在2023年开始代际交接，1985年以来担任首相的洪森把职位交给洪玛奈，同时许多内阁职位也从老部长转给他们的儿子；去年与泰国的边境冲突激发的民族主义热潮强化了这位新门面人物。泰国的阿努廷·参威拉军在1月提前选举中获胜，这是该国本世纪首次保守派胜利，而自2021年政变以来掌权的缅甸军政府利用12月至1月的虚假选举——排除不支持它的政党，并省略约半数已被叛军夺取的国土——把盟友改组进议会和内阁。

这些更新后的政权面临美国对伊朗战争带来的短期能源和粮食冲击：燃料短缺、加油站长队和更高电价，叠加霍尔木兹海峡关闭后的播种季，因此化肥和汽油成本可能使田地撂荒，并在今年晚些时候造成粮食短缺。更长期看，对中国供应链的深度依赖给予北京杠杆，尽管区域天然气、水电和降低非关税壁垒可减少中东能源进口并抵消中国市场吸引力，东盟领导人已讨论能源市场整合15年却仍无协议；苏林的私营部门改革、推动东盟一体化、连任后访问柬埔寨以及5月28日在曼谷会谈，可能使他成为区域斡旋者。

Vietnam’s To Lam speaks at the Shangri-La Dialogue on May 29 as the country’s strongest leader in nearly four decades: re-elected Communist Party chief in January and made president last month, he is the first Vietnamese leader since 1986 to hold both posts for full terms. His consolidation fits a mainland South-East Asian pattern of regime renewal across Vietnam, Cambodia, Thailand and Myanmar, after years of elite infighting or political challenge.

Cambodia began a generational handover in 2023, when Hun Sen, prime minister since 1985, transferred office to Hun Manet, while many cabinet posts passed from older ministers to their sons; nationalist fervour after last year’s Thai border skirmishes strengthened the new frontman. Thailand’s Anutin Charnvirakul won a January snap election, the first conservative victory there this century, while Myanmar’s junta, in power since its 2021 coup, used a December-January sham election—excluding non-supporting parties and omitting the roughly half of the country lost to rebels—to reshuffle allies into parliament and cabinet.

The renewed regimes face a near-term energy-and-food shock from America’s war on Iran: fuel shortages, pump queues and higher power tariffs coincide with planting season after the Strait of Hormuz closure, so fertiliser and petrol costs could leave fields fallow and produce scarcity later this year. Longer term, deep dependence on Chinese supply chains gives Beijing leverage, and although regional gas, hydropower and lower non-tariff barriers could reduce Middle East energy imports and offset China’s pull, ASEAN leaders have discussed energy-market integration for 15 years without a deal; Lam’s private-sector reforms, ASEAN-integration push, Cambodia visit after re-election and May 28 talks in Bangkok could position him as a regional broker.

Source: llliberal leaders in mainland South-East Asia revamp their regimes

Subtitle: They are doing better than their more democratic counterparts

Dateline: 5月 28, 2026 05:19 上午 | SINGAPORE