中国制造业 PMI 连续第八个月处于收缩区间，11 月读数为 49.2（较 10 月的 49.0 小幅回升，但仍低于荣枯线 50），与市场预期一致；产出分项停滞在 50.0，新订单与新出口订单虽改善但继续低于 50。非制造业 PMI 自 50.1 降至 49.5，为 2022 年 12 月以来首次收缩；服务业 PMI 首次跌破 50（自 2024 年 9 月以来），触及 2023 年 12 月以来最低。房地产与居民服务业活动指数亦低于 50，显示需求疲弱，但服务业经营预期指数为 55.9，表明对未来仍偏乐观。

结构性压力制约政策空间：全球放缓、地产长期调整与地方政府债务高企，使传统刺激路径（出口驱动与基建放量）难以重新启动。政府 2025 年增长目标约为 5%，机构判断全年目标大致可实现，因而可能推迟至明年一季度再实施更大规模支持。在此背景下，出口韧性与美国下调对华关税帮助带动小企业 PMI 升至 49.1，为六个月高点，上升 2 个百分点。库存紧缩与需求回落的组合反映制造与服务同步承压。

政策层面转向消费结构升级，涵盖农村耐用品更新与宠物、动漫、潮玩等领域。鉴于美中贸易摩擦仍构成额外压力，改革被视为修复长期供需失衡与提振居民消费的必经之路，但其实施伴随明显的短期阵痛。根据 EIU 估算，若 2026 年消费补贴的三分之一投入服务业，将显著拉动该行业及相关就业。

China’s manufacturing PMI stayed in contraction for an eighth month at 49.2 in November (up slightly from 49.0 but below the 50 threshold), matching forecasts; output stalled at 50.0, and both new orders and new export orders remained below 50. The non-manufacturing PMI fell from 50.1 to 49.5, the first contraction since December 2022; services dropped below 50 for the first time since September 2024 to the lowest since December 2023. Real estate and household services activity indices were also below 50, while the services business-expectations sub-index stood at 55.9, indicating optimism for future demand.

Structural constraints are tightening: a global slowdown, a prolonged property downturn, and heavy local-government debt weaken China’s traditional levers of export surges and infrastructure spending. With the 2025 growth target at about 5%, analysts expect major stimulus to be delayed until the first quarter of next year. Export resilience and reduced US tariffs have helped lift the small-firm PMI to 49.1, a six-month high and a 2-point increase. Inventory tightening alongside weakening demand underscores simultaneous pressure on manufacturing and services.

Policy emphasis has shifted toward consumption upgrades in rural durable goods and niches such as pets, anime, and trendy toys. With the US trade war adding stress, reforms aimed at correcting long-standing supply-demand imbalances and boosting household spending carry short-term pain but are seen as unavoidable. The EIU estimates that allocating one-third of 2026 consumption subsidies to services would significantly support the sector and employment.