AI资本开支快速扩张：UBS估计今年达4,230亿美元、2026年升至5,710亿美元，且多家投行预期2030年前总AI支出将超过1兆美元。美国超大规模云端业者今年预计投入3,500亿至4,000亿美元，推升资料中心建设并加剧电网压力。相较之下，中国AI资本开支较小，预测今年约6,000亿至7,000亿元人民币，2030年增至2兆至2.5兆元，其中约三分之一用于AI基础设施。
储能系统（ESS）与相关供应链亦受益：虽然AI带动的ESS需求目前仅占全球出货约2%，但2025年前10个月全球ESS电池出货约年增70%，其中中国对主要市场出口年增61%是重要推力。JP Morgan预期ESS出货2025年增约80%、2026年再增约30%，并警告供给吃紧可能推高价格至明年。中国电池与储能厂商仍占主导；例如Sungrow表示自2025年10月起开始收到美国云端公司对资料中心储能的询单，同时网路设备与散热零组件在东南亚建置潮下需求走强。
AI data centers’ heavier power and cooling loads are accelerating grid upgrades and exposing a transformer bottleneck. In the U.S., about 80% of power-transformer supply and 50% of distribution-transformer supply are imported, with 2025 deficits projected at 30% and 10%. China’s transformer exports for the first 11 months hit nearly CNY 58B, up 36.3% year on year, while leading firms’ overseas growth (e.g., +65.91% international contract value) outpaced domestic growth (+14.08%). Delivery speed is a key edge: under 1 year from Chinese suppliers versus 2–3 years elsewhere.
AI capex is scaling fast: UBS estimates $423B in 2025 and $571B in 2026, and several banks project total AI spending surpassing $1T by 2030. U.S. hyperscalers are expected to invest $350B–$400B in 2025, driving data center construction and adding grid stress. China’s AI capex is smaller, forecast at CNY 600B–700B in 2025, rising to CNY 2T–2.5T by 2030, with roughly one-third allocated to AI infrastructure.
Energy storage systems (ESS) and adjacent supply chains are another beneficiary. Even though AI-driven ESS demand is only ~2% of global shipments today, global ESS battery shipments rose about 70% year on year in the first 10 months of 2025, helped by a 61% jump in China’s exports to major markets. JP Morgan expects ESS shipments to grow ~80% in 2025 and ~30% in 2026, warning tight supply could lift prices into next year. Chinese leaders remain dominant; for example, Sungrow reported receiving data-center ESS inquiries from U.S. cloud firms starting in October 2025, while networking gear and cooling components gain importance amid Southeast Asia’s buildout.
