礼来（Eli Lilly）已成为全球市值最高的制药商，也是首家市值突破1万亿美元的制药企业，加入了主要由科技巨头主导的万亿俱乐部。自2023年初以来，其股价已翻了三倍多。分析师预计，礼来的营收在2026至2030年间将实现年均15%左右的增长，是同行中位数的三倍以上。这一市场估值的爆发式增长在很大程度上得益于新型肥胖症药物GLP-1s的成功，其减肥针剂Zepbound在2024年（即上市的首个完整年份）创造了49亿美元的销售额，而分析师预计今年的销售额将达到这一数字的四倍。目前，礼来占美国GLP-1销售额的五分之三（60%），彭博行业研究预计，到2030年，礼来将控制全球每年价值超1200亿美元的减肥药市场的三分之二（约67%）。
然而，礼来首席执行官戴夫·里克斯有着更宏大的宏伟蓝图。他正试图借鉴硅谷科技巨头的运营模式，将礼来重塑为一家专注于疾病预防而非仅提供治疗的“科技型”制药公司。虽然诺和诺德的减肥药比礼来提早两年在美国上市，但到2025年，疗效更好且副作用更少的Zepbound成功反超了对手。为应对目前全球超过120家公司开发的190多个在研减肥药物的竞争，礼来采取了“覆盖棋盘”的产品布局，并在2020年后承诺投入超过500亿美元来扩大生产规模，认为大规模制造能力在行业竞争中将与新药研发同样重要。
此外，预防性医药的商业模式要求制药公司与患者建立更直接和紧密的联系。礼来推出的在线药房LillyDirect便是这一尝试，目前超过一半的新GLP-1患者都是通过这一在线渠道购药。里克斯还将GLP-1视为可以派生出多种药物的“平台”，使其生产可以共享相同的制造网络以降低成本。在AI应用方面，虽然礼来与英伟达合作建造了行业内最强大的生物医学超算，并向选定的生物技术公司分享其专有数据训练出的模型，但里克斯谨慎地指出，除非AI能够理解人体底层的生物学规则，否则其在药物发现中的作用依然有限，其近期更有意义的应用在于简化繁琐的医疗行政工作。
Eli Lilly has emerged as the world's most valuable drugmaker and the first to achieve a $1trn valuation, joining a group dominated by tech giants. Since the start of 2023, its share price has more than tripled. Analysts forecast Lilly's revenue will grow by an average of 15% annually until 2030, triple the median of its peers. This momentum is driven by GLP-1 weight-loss drug sales. Its slimming shot, Zepbound, generated $4.9bn in 2024—its first full year—with sales expected to quadruple this year. Lilly commands three-fifths of US GLP-1 sales, and Bloomberg Intelligence expects the company to secure two-thirds of a global obesity market valued at over $120bn annually by 2030.
Lilly’s CEO, Dave Ricks, plans to borrow Silicon Valley frameworks to transform the drugmaker into a technology-driven company focused on prevention. Although Danish rival Novo Nordisk entered the US market two years earlier, Zepbound overtook it by 2025 due to superior weight-loss efficacy and fewer side effects. Facing competition from over 120 companies with 190 drug candidates in clinical trials, Lilly is diversifying its portfolio to cover the chessboard. Ricks highlights manufacturing scale as a key competitive moat, with Lilly committing over $50bn to expand production facilities since 2020.
Lilly's shift toward preventive medicine requires a direct consumer relationship, leading to the launch of its online pharmacy LillyDirect, which now registers over half of its new GLP-1 patients. Ricks treats GLP-1 as a platform rather than a product, allowing multiple injectables to share the same production lines to reduce costs. Regarding artificial intelligence, Lilly partnered with Nvidia to build the industry's most powerful supercomputer. However, Ricks cautions that today's AI models cannot reason about underlying biological rules, meaning the technology's immediate value lies in simplifying administrative paperwork rather than automated drug discovery.
Source: Eli Lilly is reinventing the pharma business
Subtitle: The world’s largest drugmaker is betting big on preventive medicines—and learning from big tech
Dateline: Jul 16, 2026 06:54 AM | Indianapolis