法国正面临现代福利制度的极限,因为高中生抗议活动已连续进行了第三周,并伴随著不断扩大的政府赤字和飙升的借贷成本。这些学生封锁了学校,包括位于巴黎西南方Jouy-en-Josas的HEC商学院,以抗议教室条件、教师缺勤和大学入学问题。虽然这些示威活动尚未引发类似1968年春季数百万名法国男女参与全国抗议的广泛劳工运动,但政界人士长期以来一直担心这种历史重演。过去几十年来,不断下降的利率使法国政府即使在债务攀升的情况下,仍能透过打开支票簿向选民发放现金来平息大规模抗议。
然而,这一长期金融趋势在Covid-19疫情后发生了逆转,因为其他欧洲国家纷纷控制赤字,而法国却未能缩减开支,导致支出超过收入。因此,法国作为仅次于欧洲最大经济体德国的投资者第二安全避风港的历史地位正在减弱。在过去几个月里,由于赤字目标未能实现、政策僵局以及明年总统大选的不确定性,投资者对法国债务要求的额外利息相对于德国急剧跃升。民调中势头强劲的两位候选人,即极右翼的Marine Le Pen或极左翼的Jean-Luc Mélenchon,其中任何一人获胜都可能彻底改变国家的方向。
这场债券危机严重限制了政府提供额外资金来安抚学校并同时向投资者派定心丸的能力。政府没有提供额外现金,而是承诺派遣3,000名等待分配的代课教师进入教室,开启线上咨询,并承诺在本月底前采取额外的未指明措施。此外,政府正寄望于本周六开始的为期两周的秋假,这一天恰好预计将在全国大部分地区举行更广泛的生活成本抗议活动。官员们希望,随著高中关闭两周,学生们在11月返校时继续封锁学校的动力将会减弱。
France is confronting the limits of its modern welfare system as high school student protests enter their third consecutive week, coinciding with widening government deficits and surging borrowing costs. These students have blockaded schools, including the HEC business school in Jouy-en-Josas southwest of Paris, to protest classroom conditions, teacher absences, and university admissions. While these demonstrations have not yet triggered broader worker participation akin to the spring of 1968—when millions of French men and women joined national protests—politicians have long feared such a historical repeat. For decades, falling interest rates allowed French governments to quell mass protests by turning to their checkbooks and showering voters with cash even as national debt climbed.
However, this multi-decade financial trend flipped following the Covid-19 pandemic, as France failed to rein in deficits unlike much of the rest of Europe, continuing to spend more than it brings in. Consequently, France's historical status as investors' second-safest haven in Europe behind Germany, the continent's biggest economy, is eroding. Over the past few months, the extra interest rate spread investors demand to hold French debt over German bonds has jumped sharply due to missed deficit targets, policy gridlock, and uncertainty surrounding next year's presidential election. A victory by either of the two candidates with strong momentum in the polls, Marine Le Pen on the far right or Jean-Luc Mélenchon on the far left, could radically alter the nation's direction.
This bond crisis severely constrains the government's ability to provide extra funds to calm schools while simultaneously reassuring investors. Rather than offering extra cash, the government promised to deploy 3,000 substitute teachers who were awaiting assignment into classrooms, opened online consultations, and pledged additional unspecified measures by the end of the month. Furthermore, the government is relying on a two-week autumn vacation beginning this Saturday, the exact same day a broader cost-of-living protest is expected across much of the country. Officials hope that with high schools closed for the two-week break, students will feel less motivation to resume blockades when they return in November.