美国现有11艘航母，但全球部署且受维修周期影响。若美军长期维持「太平洋/大西洋=60/40」的分配且总量仍为11艘，则分配到太平洋约为7艘或更少；在此假设下，中国若达到9艘总量，可能在2035之前就超越美国于太平洋的配置数。
中国目前3艘可用航母：辽宁舰（改装自苏联）、山东舰（国产、滑跃起飞）、福建舰（电磁弹射，全球仅次于美国福特级）。另有第4艘在大连建造，外界预期可能采核动力。与此同时，美方同一时段预计至2035年仅交付约3艘新航母；按五角大厦估算，中方若在未来十余年间新增6艘，等于平均约每20个月就有一艘新航母开工，节奏显著快于美方约4–5年的建造周期。
The Pentagon’s China Military Power Report says the PLAN “aims to produce six aircraft carriers by 2035 for a total of nine.” Analysts argue that, if realized, this trajectory could let China field more carriers in the Western Pacific than the U.S. by 2035, because China concentrates regionally while U.S. forces are globally tasked.
The U.S. operates 11 carriers, but if it sustains a 60/40 Pacific-over-Atlantic allocation with the same total inventory, only about seven or fewer would be assigned to the Pacific over time. Under that assumption, China’s projected nine-carrier fleet would surpass the Pacific-assigned U.S. count sometime before 2035, further amplified by U.S. maintenance cycles that reduce availability.
China has three operational carriers: Liaoning (refitted ex-Soviet), Shandong (domestic build with a ski-jump), and Fujian (electromagnetic catapults, second globally after USS Gerald R. Ford). A fourth is under construction in Dalian and is expected by some to shift to nuclear propulsion. Over the same window, the U.S. expects about three deliveries by 2035; the Pentagon’s estimate implies China adds six in roughly a decade—about one new carrier entering construction every 20 months versus a 4–5 year U.S. cadence, a ~50% rise versus the oft-cited “six by 2035.”
