← 返回 Avalaches

Rhodium Group的China Cross-Border Monitor显示,2025年中国对外外国直接投资(FDI)较上年增长18%,新FDI达1240亿美元,为2018年以来最高,但仍明显低于2016年峰值。该统计基于投资公告而非完成交易。背景包括中美贸易与科技争端扰动供应链,以及AI训练用资料中心扩张推升用能需求,促使资本加速从西方市场转向非洲与中东等地区。

部门结构上,能源(化石燃料与再生能源)与大宗商品合计接近2025年已公告对外投资的一半;汽车部门占比降至2020年以来最低,反映电动车制造与上游供应链放缓。资本主要集中于亚洲(约400亿美元新交易)与撒哈拉以南非洲。代表性项目包括几内亚Simandou铁矿、奈及利亚两座大型锂加工厂,以及Tongkun Group、Xinfengming Group、Tingshan Group在印尼公告的59亿美元联合投资(炼化与化工综合体),属当年最大交易之一。

另一组研究(Griffith Institute Asia与上海Green Finance & Development Center)指出Belt and Road Initiative在2025年仍维持高参与度;Christoph Nedopil的研究显示投资多流向金属与采矿的矿物加工,哈萨克斯坦为单一最大受益国,2025年约获258亿美元,主要由铝与铜相关项目驱动。Rhodium亦称,消费品企业海外投资推动并购,且并购交易金额自2022年以来几乎翻倍;但对外投资仍以制造业绿地投资为主。地区上,中东与北非创纪录新高;北美、欧洲与大洋洲合计占比低于20%,相较2016年约下滑70%,并受西方审查与限制(如德国阻挡收购、瑞士立法审查、CFIUS加强审查)影响,使企业对美公告更为谨慎。

1a0e3a9a60eb.png



Rhodium Group’s China Cross-Border Monitor reports that China’s outbound foreign direct investment (FDI) rose 18% in 2025 to $124 billion in new FDI, the highest level since 2018 but still far below the 2016 peak. The figures reflect announced investments rather than completed transactions. The shift occurs amid U.S.-China trade and technology disputes that have disrupted supply chains and amid rising energy demand driven by expanding data centers for training artificial intelligence, accelerating a pivot away from Western destinations toward Africa and the Middle East.

By sector, energy (fossil fuels and renewables) and commodities accounted for nearly half of announced outbound investment in 2025, while the automotive share fell to its lowest level since 2020 as electric-vehicle manufacturing and upstream supply chains slowed. Capital concentrated in Asia (about $40 billion in new transactions) and sub-Saharan Africa. Major announced deals included Guinea’s Simandou iron ore mine, two large lithium processing plants in Nigeria, and a $5.9 billion joint venture by Tongkun Group, Xinfengming Group, and Tingshan Group for a refining and chemical complex in Indonesia, one of the year’s largest transactions.

Separate research by Griffith Institute Asia and Shanghai’s Green Finance & Development Center indicates high 2025 engagement under the Belt and Road Initiative; Christoph Nedopil’s work finds most investment flowed into mineral processing in metals and mining, with Kazakhstan the largest single recipient at about $25.8 billion in 2025 driven by aluminum- and copper-related projects. Rhodium also notes consumer-goods firms increased overseas investment via mergers and acquisitions, with M&A value almost doubling since 2022, though outbound investment remains dominated by manufacturing-focused greenfield projects. Regionally, the Middle East and North Africa reached a record high, while North America, Europe, and Oceania together took under 20% of announced FDI after an roughly 70% decline from 2016, reflecting heightened Western screening and restrictions (e.g., blocked deals in Germany, new Swiss screening, and stepped-up CFIUS reviews) that make China-based firms more cautious about U.S. announcements.
2026-02-05 (Thursday) · 1d0d2e107adfa2fc939d49773cc776ff45183dd7