Donald Trump 在中东开战的决定缩小了美国对 Kyiv 的杠杆：华盛顿自其就任后未再核准新的乌克兰援助，先前拨款大都到期，且美国对俄安全保障承诺如今看来越来越不可靠。对俄原油出口关键制裁已先行放宽，因此恢复制裁压力的威胁更难成立。PURL 转移机制目前把成本转给盟国，美国对 Kyiv 的军事支援（含 Patriot、HIMARS 及即时情报）也同步下降，因美国注意力已转向伊朗战争。
因此乌克兰在外交与国防上更具自治性。俄罗斯春季攻势虽有推进但代价高昂；据部分民族主义军事部落客称，莫斯科承受创纪录伤亡却几乎没有新增领土，这被归因于 Kyiv 在无人机与机器人战争上的技术进步。乌克兰的打击范围可延伸至前线后方约 2,000 公里（含英制原数，约 1,243 英里）的俄方能源与后勤节点，一度使俄罗斯石油出口能力下线约 40%，而俄罗斯后勤风险范围已延伸到前线后约 120 公里（75 英里）。
Zelenskiy 已开始把这些能力转化为外交筹码。自 2 月 28 日中东战争爆发后不久，他派出约 200 名教官到海湾国家，提供无人机拦截支援，并在上周末与卡塔尔、沙乌地阿拉伯及阿拉伯联合大公国签下为期 10 年、总额以十亿美元计的三项协议，内容包含乌克兰无人机供应与合作生产，并交换能源与其他稀缺资源。对沙乌地阿拉伯而言，美国曾核准其再购 730 具 Patriot，而 Zelenskiy 倒是将 Ukraine 防空经验与 Hormuz 海峡防御概念作为进一步交换与影响力的基础。
Donald Trump’s decision to start the Middle East war has reduced U.S. leverage over Kyiv: Washington has not approved any new Ukraine aid since he took office, prior U.S. funding lines have largely run out, and U.S. security assurances now look increasingly unreliable. The most important Russian crude-sanctions relief had already been lifted, so the threat of restoring that pressure carries less force. Through PURL, the burden is shifted to allies, while U.S. military support to Kyiv—such as Patriot interceptors, HIMARS, and real-time intelligence—has declined as U.S. attention moved to the Iran war.
As a result, Ukraine has become more autonomous in diplomacy and defense. Russia’s spring offensive appears costly for Moscow: nationalist military bloggers report record casualties with little territorial gain, driven by Kyiv’s advances in drone and robotic warfare. Ukraine can strike into Russian logistics roughly 2,000 km behind the front lines—at times enough to take about 40% of Russian oil-export capacity offline—while the risk envelope around Ukrainian defenses extends to about 120 km (75 miles) behind the line. The war’s “kill zone” has moved deeper, and Ukraine is compensating for Russia’s larger manpower, tank, and artillery totals with tempo and technology.
Zelenskiy has turned this into bargaining power. After the Iran war began on Feb. 28, he sent about 200 trainers to Gulf states to share drone-interception expertise. He then signed three 10-year agreements with Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates, reportedly worth billions of dollars, for drone supply and joint production in exchange for energy and other scarce resources. He also seeks American help with Patriot systems, while Saudi Arabia—already one of the world’s largest Patriot-stock holders—has recently received U.S. approval to buy 730 more.