文章指出，持有 Tesla Inc. 本质上是在押注 Elon Musk 下一步的叙事；依 Bloomberg News 的报导，他可能推动 Tesla 与未上市的 Space Exploration Technologies Corp.（SpaceX）或未上市的 xAI 合并，甚至三者合并。Musk 以「收敛」的工业逻辑包装这些想法，例如以 SpaceX 发射由 Tesla 太阳能供电的 AI（xAI）资料中心至太空，并谈及在车内使用 Grok、把车队变成边缘运算资产等协同效应。市场对此先行买单：Tesla 投资人于周五将股价推高逾 3%，仿佛是在对 Musk 会选哪条路投下信任票。
作者认为，若仅是关联企业之间买卖服务与商品，本可直接交易（现已如此），很难找到把 Cybertrucks、Starships 与 Grok 等业务「装在同一个引擎盖下」的必然战略理由；更可能的动机较为「平凡」：控制权、募资能力与补贴。背景是 Tesla 的核心电动车业务已陷入停滞，并强力转向自动化与 AI；同时，最新讯息显示其投资预算将「多于倍增」。Musk 亦警告他需要把持股提高到 25% 才能避免「不良行为者」控制该技术；目前他约持有其中一半，但另有大量限制性股票与期权待归属。
在数字推演上，若以 SpaceX 最新报导估值 8,000 亿美元与 Tesla 现值做「零溢价」全股票合并，Musk 在合并后实体中的持股约为 22%；再加上中期授予的 Tesla 限制性股票，将升至略低于 25%。若再把 xAI 以假设估值 2,300 亿美元纳入，并以其报导持股 51% 计算，则合并后的备考估值接近 2.7 兆美元，Musk 持股约 26%。然而，SpaceX 也被指可能最快在今年进行 IPO，市场传言估值可达 1.5 兆美元；在此情境下，Tesla 现有股东在新公司中的占比将被稀释到约一半（若再纳入 xAI 则更低），但 IPO 能带来新资金，且 SpaceX 据称正寻求高达 500 亿美元。作者并以估值倍数对照：Musk 称 SpaceX 去年营收约 150 亿美元，市场或许愿意给 100 倍营收倍数，而同一市场对 Tesla 的市盈倍数约 260 倍（且盈利在下滑）；同时 Tesla 拥有 440 亿美元现金，可在合并后更自由地被用于火箭发射与巨额资本支出（仅建晶片与太阳能相关工厂的成本就可能超过 1,000 亿美元）。文章最后警告，利益冲突、烧钱与稀释理应是阻力，但投资人先前已接受 SolarCity 并购与 Tesla 拟投 20 亿美元入 xAI 等安排；即便法律与惯例需要股东表决，真正的决定仍可能取决于 Musk 一人。
The article argues that owning Tesla Inc. is effectively a bet on what Elon Musk claims he will do next; per Bloomberg News, he may pursue a merger between Tesla and the unlisted Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SpaceX) or the unlisted xAI, or even combine all three. Musk frames this as an industrial “convergence” logic, such as using SpaceX launches to place solar-powered (Tesla) AI (xAI) data centers in orbit, plus synergies like putting Grok in cars and turning the fleet into edge-computing assets. Markets appear to price the option value of that narrative: Tesla investors pushed the stock up more than 3% on Friday as an apparent vote of confidence in whichever path Musk chooses.
The author contends that if the businesses simply need to sell goods or services to one another, they can transact directly (as they already do), and that there is little strategic necessity to house Cybertrucks, Starships, and whatever Grok is doing under one corporate roof; more mundane motives are more plausible: control, fundraising, and subsidies. The context is that Tesla’s core EV business has stalled and the company has pivoted hard toward autonomy and AI, with new information that this will require more than a doubling of its investment budget. Musk has also warned he needs to raise his stake to 25% to prevent “bad actors” from controlling the technology; he currently owns about half that, though he also has large blocks of restricted stock and options coming.
On the merger math, using SpaceX’s latest reported $800 billion valuation and Tesla’s current valuation, a no-premium all-stock deal would leave Musk with about 22% of the combined entity; adding interim awards of restricted Tesla stock takes that to just under 25%. If xAI is also included at an assumed $230 billion valuation and Musk’s reported 51% stake, the pro forma valuation approaches $2.7 trillion and Musk’s stake becomes about 26%. But SpaceX is also said to be considering an IPO as soon as this year, with talk of a $1.5 trillion valuation; at that level Tesla shareholders would be diluted to about half of the new company (and less than half if xAI were added), while an IPO could bring new cash, reportedly as much as $50 billion. The piece compares financing multiples—SpaceX revenue of about $15 billion last year implies a potentially tolerable ~100x trailing-revenue multiple, while Tesla trades around ~260x (falling) earnings—and notes Tesla’s $44 billion cash balance and looming capital needs, including factory builds that could cost north of $100 billion. It closes by warning that conflicts of interest, cash burn, and dilution should deter shareholders but often do not, citing acceptance of the SolarCity deal and Tesla’s planned $2 billion investment in xAI; even if a vote is required, the decision may rest with Musk.