文中称俄罗斯高层、地区州长和商界已经把国家行为改说成“他的故事”，而不再用“我们/我们的”等第一人称复数。作者认为这并未等同于公开反抗；威权体制仍可凭恐惧、惯性和暴力存续，但已丧失定义国家未来的能力，早前用于合法化的“恢复国家地位”“能源超级大国”和“现代化”等叙事失去支撑。

战争成本逻辑正在变化：本该由少数群体承担的冲突随着时间和规模扩展而转化为全民负担，推高通胀与税负、挤压基建，并加剧审查，却未给社会提供明确目标。与此同时，重返俄国的精英和资本要求国内可执行的财产权规则；过去三年约有5000亿卢布（约600亿美元）资产被没收并重新分配给忠诚群体，这是自1990年代大规模私有化以来最大的财产重分配。

地缘和意识形态层面的变化又进一步收紧压力：俄罗斯原本寄望利用欧洲对天然气依赖、联合国安理会影响力和核遗产取得杠杆，但在全球秩序疲软与民粹化上升中，这些优势正在侵蚀，修正主义收益消失。旧有“以便捷服务换取忠诚”的隐性契约也在崩溃，新的规则是“要忠诚但不给未来承诺”，四因素叠加形成“无论下子都更差”的僵局，继续镇压或再次开战都可能进一步恶化长期稳定性。

Senior officials, regional governors, and business elites are now describing state actions in Russia as "his" story instead of "we" or "ours." The analysis argues this is not yet open rebellion: the authoritarian system still holds through fear, inertia, and violence, but it has lost the power to define the country's future, and earlier legitimizing narratives such as restoring statehood, becoming an energy superpower, and modernization no longer hold.

The war’s burden has shifted from a limited elite-driven endeavor to a national one as duration and scale expanded, raising inflation and taxes, straining infrastructure, and increasing censorship without giving society a clear purpose. At the same time, returning elites and capital demand domestic legal institutions, and in the past three years about 5 trillion roubles (US$60bn) have been confiscated and redistributed to loyalists, the largest property transfer since the mass privatization of the 1990s.

Geopolitical and identity pressures then deepen the squeeze: the expected leverage from Europe’s gas dependence, UN Security Council status, and the Soviet nuclear legacy is fading in a weakening global order, so revisionist gains are disappearing. The social contract has degraded into loyalty without a promised future, with repression and control rising; with all four forces aligned, the regime faces a true zugzwang in which any move, including more repression or another war, appears to worsen long-term stability and raise systemic risk.

Source: Vladimir Putin is losing his grip on Russia

Subtitle: His every move to preserve power accelerates decay, writes a former senior official in the Russian government

Dateline: 5月 07, 2026 06:28 上午