北京峰会预计会带来的成果远低于早期乐观情绪：“大交易”不再在议程上，双方最理想的结果可能只是延长脆弱的贸易停火。特朗普的行程原定四月初因伊朗战争推迟，如今改在5月14日至15日举行，且为计划中的四次会晤中的第一次，这反映双方都不想再拖延。
贸易不平衡的数据呈现出部分缓和：美国与中国的贸易逆差从2018年高于4000亿美元降至去年约2000亿美元，美国官员仍希望通过“贸易委员会”引导更多商品按选定渠道流通。可中国在多数领域仍具广泛比较优势，过多行业可能仍被归为“敏感”，美国企业甚至将中国对美需求玩笑化为“牛肉、大豆和波音”，而中国更倾向于把该委员会仅用于处理摩擦，不让其成为配额式管理贸易工具。
美国最高法院推翻大部分特朗普全球关税决定后，不确定性上升，美方又通过“产业过剩”与“强迫劳动”两项调查重构高关税框架，若调查结果落在中国，可能再次引发报复性升级。中国近期发布两项国务院令，分别涉及供应链外移及对遵守外国制裁企业的反制，同时在2025年停火后被暂缓的稀土许可制度于11月再次进入审议，说明竞争核心仍是防止对方更具杠杆，较现实的结果是维持可预期性并避免关系更坏。
The summit in Beijing is expected to deliver far less than early optimism: a grand bargain is off the table, and at best the two sides may only extend a fragile trade truce. Trump’s trip, delayed from early April by the Iran war and now set for May 14 and 15 as the first of four scheduled 2026 meetings, shows both sides did not want further delay.
Trade imbalance figures show partial relief: China’s surplus with the United States fell from above $400 billion in 2018 to about $200 billion last year, while U.S. officials still hope a board can steer more goods through selected channels. Yet China’s broad manufacturing advantage means too many sectors can still be labeled “sensitive”—executives joke that U.S. demand collapses to “beef, beans and Boeings”—and China says it prefers a board for handling trade frictions, not managed flows. Peterson Institute estimates place U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods near 47% and Chinese tariffs on U.S. goods near 30% after two 90-day pauses and a one-year deal, and Chinese exporters still posted a roughly $1.2 trillion global trade surplus.
A U.S. Supreme Court ruling that struck down most Trump-era global tariffs increased uncertainty, and new U.S. investigations into industrial overcapacity and forced labor could reinstate much higher duties on China, risking another escalation cycle. China’s recent decrees on supply-chain relocation and firms complying with foreign sanctions, plus a rare-earth licensing system that resumes review after the Xi-Trump pause and is due in November, reinforce that rivalry remains driven by fear; the most likely outcome is limited predictability and a stronger chance of avoiding a worse breakdown.
Source: Trump and Xi will struggle to strike a major economic deal
Subtitle: Just avoiding a renewed clash will count as success
Dateline: 5月 07, 2026 06:28 上午 | BEIJING