自1979年中美建交以来，中美台关系长期依赖刻意模糊的默契：1982年公报在“和平前提”下承诺逐步减少对台军售，但华盛顿同时向台北发出秘密保证。随着唐纳德·特朗普准备访华，中国再度加压要求在台湾问题上换取让步，引发台北与华盛顿担忧其是否会在更大政治交易中做出退让。
过去几年中国的“军事施压—美方外交模糊—台湾安抚承诺”结构并未消失，而是叠加中东战争后美国军力重配后的结构性约束，形成更高的不确定性。该框架包含航母打击群、两栖远征部队、导弹防御装备和大量弹药转往海湾，进一步侵蚀美国在印太的可持续反应能力。
台湾每年在高端半导体上占世界供给约90%，但其防务财政与供应链节奏同时受制于政治：2027年被视为解放军完成武力压迫能力的时间节点、2026年还将举行三场中美高层会晤、国民党在11月与2028年选举周期中增强北京友好议程，叠加40亿美元国防增幅受阻，都使“影子协议”式话术让步的风险上升。
Since the 1979 U.S.-China normalization, cross-strait diplomacy has repeatedly relied on deliberate ambiguity: the 1982 communiqué promised to “gradually reduce” arms sales to Taiwan under a peace condition, while Washington kept secret assurances to Taipei. As Donald Trump readies a Beijing visit, China again presses for concessions on Taiwan, and both Taiwan and U.S. officials in Washington now fear any move that could be interpreted as a strategic retreat.
The arithmetic of risk has tightened further because the Middle East war has absorbed U.S. military capacity: a carrier strike group, a Marine expeditionary unit, missile-defence systems, and ammunition have been shifted to the Gulf, with readiness effects likely lasting years. Taiwan already had a US$32 billion delivery backlog before the war, and that queue has effectively stretched with a record US$11 billion arms package approved in December, then a roughly US$13 billion follow-on package delayed amid a possible wait for smaller phased approvals.
Chinese pressure is moving from formal text to wording, while Taiwan’s domestic calculus tightens: the KMT-backed parliament blocked a US$40 billion planned defense increase, Xi has made 2027 the key readiness horizon for possible invasion, and Xi now wants Taiwan “at the top of the agenda” despite no fourth communiqué; with Taiwan supplying about 90% of the world’s most advanced semiconductors, shifts from “does not support independence” toward “does not oppose peaceful reunification,” plus three additional planned 2026 meetings, could gradually become a shadow settlement even without a signed agreement.
Source: China is pushing Donald Trump for concessions on Taiwa
Subtitle: Some in Taipei and Washington fear he may give ground
Dateline: 5月 07, 2026 06:28 上午 | TAIPEI