对芬太尼的斗争支撑着美中贸易停战：自2020年以来，这种毒品已导致超过300,000名美国人死亡，并且是18至44岁人群的主要死因。特朗普总统因中国在制造该毒品中的角色对中国产品征收了20%的关税，随后在与习近平达成的近期协议中同意将其减半至10%。中国承诺采取“重大”措施；官员列出13种需额外审批的化学前体并成立了双边工作小组。停战将在一年后重新评估。
有两个结构性特征解释了芬太尼的泛滥：中国的化工行业——约占全球化工产量的40%——能够生产该毒品及其前体，以及中国的地下金融网络每年转移超过1500亿美元的非法收益。2019年中国的执法短暂扰乱了供应；美国街头价格上涨，据估计在那一时期药物过量死亡减少了20–25%。随后工厂转而出口前体，通常发往墨西哥，而在线广告和平台继续销售原料；官员表示已屏蔽或删除了超过140,000条非法广告。
最新数据显示有进展：截至4月的12个月内，约有42,000名美国人死于合成阿片类药物过量，低于截至2023年8月的12个月内约78,000人的峰值（约下降46%）。原因包括纳洛酮的可及性增加和供应减少，这可能与中国的行动有关。但执法缺口、对广泛使用前体的法律模糊性以及地缘政治上的筹码意味着中国可能在关系恶化时放松管控，如果没有持续且可核查的执法，将有反弹风险。
The fight over fentanyl anchors the US-China trade truce: the drug has killed more than 300,000 Americans since 2020 and is the leading cause of death for people aged 18–44. President Trump imposed a 20% tariff on Chinese goods over China’s role in manufacturing the drug, then agreed to halve it to 10% in a recent deal with Xi. China pledged “significant” measures; officials listed 13 chemical precursors requiring extra approvals and set up a bilateral working group. The truce will be reassessed in one year.
Two structural features explain fentanyl’s rise: China’s chemicals industry—about 40% of global chemicals production—can make the drug and its precursors, and China’s underground financial networks move over $150 billion in illicit proceeds annually. In 2019 Chinese enforcement briefly disrupted supplies; US street prices rose and an estimated 20–25% fewer people died of overdoses during that period. Factories then shifted to exporting precursors, typically to Mexico, while online ads and platforms continued to sell inputs; officials say over 140,000 illegal advertisements have been blocked or removed.
Recent data suggest progress: 42,000 Americans died of synthetic-opioid overdoses in the 12 months to April, down from a peak of about 78,000 in the 12 months to August 2023 (a ≈46% decline). Reasons include naloxone availability and reduced supply, possibly linked to Chinese actions. But enforcement gaps, legal fuzziness over widely used precursors, and geopolitical leverage mean China may loosen controls when relations sour, risking a rebound absent sustained, verifiable enforcement.