特朗普在1月2日称“锁定并上膛、准备就绪”，承诺美国将救援反对其政权的伊朗抗议者；一个月后、在伊朗出现许多千人死亡之后，美国是否以及何时兑现承诺仍不明朗。伊朗最高领袖哈梅内伊警告，若美国发动空袭将引发地区战争，而地区对进一步冲突的态度已从最初的劝阻走向更为分化。
以色列最初反对打击、担心象征性攻击会在其尚未准备好另一场战争前招致导弹报复，但到2月3日已派将领赴华盛顿讨论打击方案并转而敦促行动，同时对美伊谈判可能给德黑兰带来制裁纾困的“生命线”感到紧张。沙特的立场也更细腻：据报1月30日国防大臣称若不攻击将“只会壮胆”伊朗政权，王国虽仍倾向克制并曾拒绝开放领空，却希望若攻击发生至少参与规划。
谈判议题仍不清晰：既往聚焦核计划，该计划在去年6月以色列与美国的12天战争中遭重创，伊朗或愿在铀浓缩上让步，但仍反对限制弹道导弹或代理民兵资助。土耳其反对干预并与伊朗有534公里边界、担忧难民潮；其影响力自2024年底叙利亚革命后上升，使地区在过去两年的战争余震中联盟更易重排，而外交路径更可能倚重土耳其、军事路径则更可能牵动以色列。
Trump said on January 2 that America was “locked and loaded and ready,” promising to rescue Iranians protesting their regime; a month later, after many thousands of Iranian deaths, it remains unclear if and when that promise will be fulfilled. Iran’s supreme leader Ali Khamenei warns that U.S. air strikes would unleash a regional war, and regional attitudes have shifted from early discouragement toward a more mixed posture.
Israel initially opposed strikes, fearing a symbolic attack would trigger missile retaliation before it was prepared for another war, but by February 3 its generals were in Washington discussing strike plans and urging action while worrying that U.S.-Iran talks could give Tehran a sanctions-relief lifeline. Saudi Arabia’s stance has also grown more nuanced: on January 30 its defense minister was reported to say that no attack would “only embolden” Iran’s regime, and although the kingdom still prefers restraint and earlier denied airspace access, it wants to be part of planning if strikes proceed.
The talks’ focus is still uncertain: past negotiations centered on the nuclear program, badly damaged in last June’s 12-day Israel-U.S. war, and Iran may concede on uranium enrichment but remains opposed to limits on ballistic missiles or funding proxy militias. Turkey opposes intervention, shares a 534 km border with Iran, and fears refugee flows; its clout has risen since Syria’s late-2024 revolution, leaving alliances more fluid amid the past two years’ wars, with diplomacy likely to lean on Turkey and military action likely to involve Israel.
Source: Two countries have changed their position about war with Ira
Subtitle: Further regional conflict could bring chaos—and opportunities
Dateline: 2月 05, 2026 06:12 上午 | JERUSALEM