人权组织已确认近期抗议中死亡超过6,500人，并在核实另外17,000人的死亡；反对派媒体伊朗国际则称死亡总数超过36,500，这些相互差距巨大的数字凸显伤亡统计的不确定性与规模之大。持续三周的互联网封锁削弱数字经济并加剧孤立，而家属为取回遗体需支付“子弹费”等做法进一步激化民怨。
1月8日抗议者曾在德黑兰等地控制街头数小时，伴随大范围破坏交通设施与监控设备，且多方描述出现持刀者袭击并杀害巴斯基成员，暴力程度呈升级趋势。随着“这已是内战”的认知扩散、以及将燃烧瓶升级为机枪的言论出现，冲突从示威向武装化的概率上升。
1月27日里亚尔在美元走弱背景下仍跌至新低，显示金融压力与政治动荡同步加深；国内政治空间也被进一步压缩，包括有关前总统鲁哈尼遭软禁及其盟友被限制出行的说法。更广泛的地区外溢风险浮现，土耳其称正考虑设立缓冲区以防难民涌入，而历史上英美在1921、1941与1953年介入伊朗政变以及2003年伊拉克、利比亚等案例被用作外部干预后果难测的参照。
Human-rights groups have confirmed over 6,500 deaths in the recent protests and are verifying 17,000 more, while Iran International puts the toll at over 36,500, a large spread that underscores both scale and uncertainty in the casualty count. A three-week internet blackout has crippled the digital economy and deepened isolation, and families reportedly pay for the bullets used to kill relatives to retrieve bodies, intensifying anger.
On January 8 protesters reportedly controlled streets in Tehran and other cities for several hours amid widespread destruction of traffic infrastructure and surveillance equipment, with multiple accounts describing knife-armed attackers killing basijis, indicating a shift toward more organized violence. Talk of swapping Molotov cocktails for machine guns and claims that “it’s already a civil war” point to rising odds that unrest morphs into armed conflict.
On January 27 the rial hit a new low even against a falling dollar, signaling worsening economic stress alongside political crisis; repression is also described as tightening, including reports of former president Hassan Rouhani under house arrest and allies facing travel bans. Spillover risk is flagged by Turkey’s consideration of a buffer zone against refugee inflows, while past foreign interventions in 1921, 1941, and 1953 and cautionary comparisons to post-2003 Iraq and Libya highlight unpredictable outcomes if external force or regime collapse occurs.
Source: The violence in Iran could lead to civil war
Subtitle: As America masses an armada, the regime’s response to recent protests is radicalising Iranians
Dateline: 2月 05, 2026 04:18 上午