军工股已成为这场冲突中最直接的市场赢家之一：3月2日美国国防股上涨3%，富裕国家的武器制造商在过去12个月累计上涨52%，而韩国韩华航空航天和加拿大声呐企业Kraken Robotics自2024年初以来市值都增长了十倍以上。投资热情反映出市场押注战争扩散和军费上升将带来持续订单。
但估值已被推到极端水平：西方防务公司的股价约为预期收益的35倍，已接近英伟达，而后者受人工智能热潮推动的芯片销售仍以每年75%的速度增长。这个对比表明，军工股当前定价隐含了一个高要求情景，即冲突必须持续到足以支撑利润，却又不能严重到让政府压缩利润空间。
需求前景同样存在统计上的落差与政策风险：北约成员国都承诺把国防开支提高到GDP的3.5%，但新增预算可能流向军人养老金或边缘性项目，而不一定主要购买武器。历史也显示盈利未必转化为股东回报，因为美国飞机制造商股票在1938年至1941年12月珍珠港事件前表现强劲，但从那时到1945年，广泛的美国股票组合回报更高；如今特朗普提出将高管年薪上限压到500万美元，仅为2024年典型水平的四分之一，欧洲议会绿党则要求征收暴利税。
Defence stocks have become one of the clearest market winners from the conflict: on March 2 American defence shares rose 3%, weapons makers across the rich world gained 52% over the past 12 months, and both Hanwha Aerospace of South Korea and Canada’s Kraken Robotics have increased their market value by more than ten-fold since the start of 2024. Investor enthusiasm shows that markets are pricing in wider war and higher military spending as a durable revenue trend.
Yet valuations have been pushed to extreme levels: Western defence firms trade at about 35 times forecast earnings, close to Nvidia, whose AI-boom chip sales are still growing at 75% a year. That comparison implies a demanding scenario in which conflict stays intense enough to support profits, but not so severe that governments crush margins.
The demand outlook also contains a numerical gap and a policy risk: all NATO members have pledged to lift defence spending to 3.5% of GDP, but extra budgets may flow to military pensions or loosely defined projects rather than mainly to weapons purchases. History also shows that profits do not automatically become shareholder returns, because American aircraft stocks did well from 1938 until the Pearl Harbor attack in December 1941, but from then to 1945 a broad US equity portfolio returned more; now Trump has floated a $5m cap on executives’ annual pay, only one quarter of a typical 2024 level, while European Greens are calling for a windfall tax.
Source: Why war isn’t always good for defence stocks
Subtitle: They win only if governments want just enough weapons—but not too many
Dateline: 3月 05, 2026 04:15 上午