自今年初以来，已提出超过12项法案，主张对预测市场实施更严格规范；部分民主党议员与部分与宗教保守派或赌场州利益相关的共和党议员，主张其应受赌博法规制约。部分州政府也要求预测市场像赌场般必须取得州牌照并缴纳较高税负。与此同时，匿名投资者在伊朗战事、前委内瑞拉总统 Nicolás Maduro 被劫持等事件中的下注传出内线交易嫌疑，与事件赌盘的1.43亿美元内线问题报导一起，加剧了调查压力。
产业反击快速升级：Kalshi 先后聘用 Resolution Public Affairs、Squire Patton Boggs，并延揽 Jeff Miller、Jed Bhuta 与前顾问 Stephanie Cutter；公司近期更在华府推广「We Don’t Do Death Markets」广告，主张以CFTC《商品交易法》框架为主，反对各州按赌博法分裂管理。Polymarket 的华府游说力量较弱，仅披露2名游说人士；DraftKings 第一季投入29 万美元（较去年同期增长29%），FanDuel 投入38 万美元（增长58%），并加强 CFTC 相关游说。业界与 Crypto.com、Coinbase、Robinhood、Underdog 组成阵线，对抗支持各州赌博式监管的赌场业团体，Sean Patrick Maloney 亦主张许多选民已是用户。
Prediction-market operators have entered a lobbying surge in Washington. Lobbying disclosures show at least US$1.84 million spent in Q1 2026, up more than 60% from US$1.10 million in the same quarter a year earlier, with Kalshi and entrants from crypto and sports gambling leading the hiring push. The market has expanded into a multibillion-dollar arena: weekly notional trading is in the billions, annual revenue reached US$2 billion by December, and analysts project US$10 billion by 2030, roughly a fivefold increase. As a result, the industry has moved from policy margins to the center of congressional and state scrutiny.
Lawmakers have introduced more than 12 bills since the start of the year targeting prediction markets. Many Democrats and some Republicans, especially those tied to religious conservatives or casino-heavy states, now seek to regulate these markets like gambling. State officials in some jurisdictions are also pushing for casino-style licensing and tax requirements. At the same time, reports of suspicious war and event-related bets—including links to the Iran conflict and the Nicolás Maduro abduction—and the reported US$143 million insider-problem in event wagers have intensified pressure for investigations.
Industry resistance is becoming more organized. Kalshi dominates lobbying activity: it added Resolution Public Affairs and Squire Patton Boggs, uses figures such as Jeff Miller, Jed Bhuta, and consultant Stephanie Cutter, and launched Washington ads branded “We Don’t Do Death Markets,” arguing for Commodity Exchange Act-style oversight by the CFTC rather than state gambling law. Polymarket disclosed only two lobbyists. DraftKings spent US$290,000 in Q1, up 29%, and FanDuel US$380,000, up 58%, while both expanded CFTC-focused resources. A coalition including Coinbase, Crypto.com, Robinhood, and Underdog now pushes back against casino-style treatment, even as casino operators and their Washington lobby support stricter controls.