2026年初，美国在委内瑞拉、格陵兰和伊朗采取一系列高风险行动，但俄罗斯总统普京几乎保持沉默。这一反常现象出现在关键节点：美国突袭并带走委内瑞拉总统马杜罗；公开宣称要夺取格陵兰；并对伊朗施压。与此同时，俄乌战争在上周超过一个历史门槛，其持续时间已长于苏联在第二次世界大战中的参战时间。尽管这些事件直接触及俄罗斯的盟友与安全叙事，克里姆林宫及其官方媒体却选择回避。
俄罗斯国内数据为这种克制提供了线索。2023年的实地观察显示，社会对西方的敌意与对斯大林的崇拜上升，而战争成本也在累积。到2025年底，经济压力加大、通胀上升、阵亡人数增加。2025年12月22日，列瓦达中心调查显示，67%的俄罗斯人支持通过谈判结束战争，仅25%希望继续作战，为入侵以来最低。虽然这不等同于反战或反普京，但显著降低了其公开升级叙事的空间。
地缘政治层面，普京的沉默也反映能力与算计的约束。持续的乌克兰战争削弱了俄罗斯在其他战场的行动力：2015年可军事介入叙利亚，2024年却只能撤离。面对美国在西半球扩张影响力，普京若目标是在东欧建立势力范围，公开反对反而削弱自身立场。沉默或意味着押注一项“大交易”：以默认美国在其他地区的行动，换取华盛顿在乌克兰问题上迫使基辅让步。这种前景对欧洲与乌克兰构成直接风险。
At the start of 2026, the United States undertook high-risk actions in Venezuela, Greenland, and Iran, while Russian President Vladimir Putin remained conspicuously silent. This restraint coincided with key moments: a US operation abducted Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro; Washington openly discussed seizing Greenland; and pressure mounted on Iran. At the same time, the war in Ukraine crossed a symbolic threshold, lasting longer than the Soviet Union’s participation in World War II. Despite the direct relevance to Russian allies and security narratives, the Kremlin and state media largely avoided comment.
Domestic indicators help explain the restraint. Field observations from 2023 showed rising hostility toward the West and renewed Stalin reverence, alongside mounting war costs. By late 2025, economic strain, higher inflation, and increasing casualties intensified pressure. A December 22, 2025 survey by the Levada Center found 67% of Russians favored a negotiated end to the war, while only 25% wanted to continue fighting, the lowest share since the invasion began. This does not signal opposition to Putin, but it reduces room for overt escalation rhetoric.
Geopolitically, silence also reflects constrained capacity and calculation. The Ukraine war has drained Russia’s ability to act elsewhere: in 2015 it intervened militarily in Syria; by 2024 it could only withdraw remaining forces. If Putin seeks a sphere of influence in Eastern Europe, openly challenging US moves in the Western Hemisphere would undercut his position. Silence may signal a wager on a grand bargain: tacit acceptance of US actions elsewhere in exchange for Washington pressuring Kyiv to concede. Such a scenario would pose direct risks to Ukraine and Europe.