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中国本周在台湾周边展开近年规模最大的军事演练之一,包含解放军火箭军参与,并以「正义使命2025」为名在周一启动。台湾国防部称,截至周三清晨前48小时内共有207架次解放军军机绕台,其中125架次进入台湾防空识别区,显示高频度、跨军种的压力态势。

演练包含约10小时实弹射击,并向台湾北部与南部海域发射火力;台湾方面另称周二共发射27枚火箭,其中10枚落在海上、且位于台湾24海里毗连区内,成为距离最近的中方实弹活动之一。相较2022年演训,外界评估本次时长较短,但因火箭军加入、且打击更贴近24海里界线,危险性与临战辨识难度上升。

分析人士指出,中方展现可在短时间内发动大规模演训的能力,让外界更难判断「演习或真行动」,并同时追求海峡内「制海」与海峡以东「拒止」两项互补目标。报导亦提到此举与对外威慑相关:在美方宣布对台111亿美元军售、以及多国表达关切的背景下,中方借由更接近、更多架次与更明确火力展示,强化对台与对外介入者的吓阻讯号,而美国总统特朗普则淡化紧张。

China conducted one of its largest Taiwan-area drills in recent years, including the PLA Rocket Force. Taiwan’s defense ministry reported 207 PLA aircraft over 48 hours through early Wednesday, with 125 entering Taiwan’s ADIZ—high operational tempo and broader force mix.

The exercise (“Justice Mission 2025”) began Monday and included about 10 hours of live-fire activity. Taiwan said the PLA fired 27 rockets on Tuesday; 10 reportedly landed at sea inside Taiwan’s 24-nautical-mile contiguous zone, making the live-fire element the closest yet and raising escalation risk despite a shorter overall duration than some past drills.

Analysts argue Beijing is normalizing sudden large-scale operations, increasing ambiguity over “exercise vs. real action,” while pursuing two linked aims: sea control in the strait and sea denial east of it to deter rapid U.S./Japan responses. The display followed U.S. arms sales of $11.1 billion to Taiwan and drew concern from multiple countries, though President Trump publicly downplayed the tensions.

2026-01-02 (Friday) · 0b9e61c47ade7680db4f8f1260f0bc293818c6db