利率预期转向压抑信心。澳洲央行在2月至8月短暂降息后，总裁布洛克几乎排除再降息，并警告若通膨压力持续可能恢复升息；多数借款人采浮动利率，使政策讯号更快传导至情绪与需求，对2026年初房市形成偏弱开局的风险。
年度面仍全面上涨，但结构分化加剧：达尔文年增18.9%最高，墨尔本仅增4.8%最低。高价区间（上四分位）仅升0.2%，而低价与中价区间上升1.1%，需求被可负担性与还款能力推向较低价位。现金利率3.6%较疫情前十年均值2.5%高逾1个百分点；在房价创新高下，购买中位数住宅的典型家庭估计需用税前收入45%偿付房贷，通膨与利率不确定性将续压抑情绪，但2026年供给难以明显增加可能缓冲价格大幅下跌。
Australia’s home-price growth cooled in December. The major-city Home Value Index rose 0.5% month on month, while the two biggest markets, Sydney and Melbourne, each slipped 0.1%. Gains were stronger in smaller or resource-linked markets: Perth and Adelaide led with 1.9% increases, followed by Brisbane and Darwin at 1.6%.
The outlook weakened as interest-rate expectations pivoted. After a brief easing cycle from February to August, RBA Governor Michele Bullock has largely ruled out further cuts and warned hikes could return if inflation pressures persist. Because most borrowers are on floating-rate mortgages, any shift toward “higher for longer” rates can feed quickly into sentiment and near-term housing demand, raising the risk of a softer start to 2026.
Annual values still increased across all major cities and regions, but performance was uneven: Darwin was up 18.9% over the year, versus a 4.8% rise in Melbourne. Growth is being pulled down at the top end, with the upper quartile up 0.2%, while the lower quartile and middle rose 1.1%, consistent with affordability and serviceability pressures pushing demand down-market. The cash rate is 3.6%, more than 1 percentage point above the pre-pandemic decade average of 2.5%, and a typical household buying a median-priced dwelling is estimated to devote 45% of pre-tax income to mortgage payments; inflation and rate uncertainty may weigh on sentiment, but limited 2026 supply response could offset the risk of values falling substantially.
