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英国政府宣布对寻求庇护者的政策进行重大改革,内政大臣沙巴娜·马哈茂德提出,未来难民身份只会授予30个月,可续期,但若原籍国变安全可能被拒签,部分人需等待20年方可入籍。目前大多数人获得五年难民身份后不久即能申请公民身份。去年申请难民人数创下108,000的纪录,其中有约40,000人以橡皮艇横渡英吉利海峡,占民众认知中的主导地位,尽管劳工或学生类移民体量更大。

丹麦模式成为英国政策主要参考对象,丹麦自2000年代初以来不断收紧庇护政策,已使申请量大幅下降,同时实施如暂时难民身份和没收珠宝等政策。尽管该国在减少庇护申请方面成效显著,但移民融入成效较差。丹麦本地人与外来者的就业率存在显著差距,移民后代学业表现亦远逊于英国,而英国本地人与移民就业率几乎相同,移民薪酬更高,移民子女在PISA测试中的数学与阅读成绩甚至高于丹麦本地儿童。

新改革面临两个风险:一是未必能奏效,二是有可能复制丹麦在更大范围内对移民的消极影响。英国部分吸引力(如大体交流语言、庞大移民人口)是难以更改的。研究显示,获得公民身份大大促进移民融入,提升收入、推迟结婚、减少生育。马哈茂德认为削弱难民安全感会起到威慑作用,但政策效果和理论可靠性仍存争议。

The British government has announced major reforms to policies for asylum-seekers, with Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood stating that refugee status will now be granted for only 30 months—renewable, but potentially denied if home countries become safer—with some individuals waiting up to 20 years for citizenship. Currently, most people receive five-year refugee status and may apply for citizenship shortly after. Last year saw a record 108,000 asylum applications, with around 40,000 crossing the English Channel in dinghies, a focal point in public perception even though migrant workers and students are larger categories.

The Danish model is the main reference for Britain's new policies. Since the early 2000s, Denmark has tightened asylum rules, which led to a sharp drop in applications, including policies granting only temporary refugee status and confiscating migrants' jewellery. While Denmark has succeeded in reducing asylum claims, immigrant integration has proven poor. There are large disparities in employment rates between natives and immigrants in Denmark; migrant children underperform in education compared to the British context, where native and foreign-born employment rates are almost identical, migrants earn more, and the children of migrants even outperform native Danes on PISA tests.

Two risks emerge from these reforms: first, they may not work as intended; second, Britain could replicate Denmark's negative broader record on immigration. The UK's appeal to migrants—including language and an established immigrant population—remains hard to change. Research shows that citizenship significantly increases migrants' integration, earnings, and alters family behavior. Mahmood believes that reducing refugees' sense of security will deter arrivals, but whether this will be effective—and the theoretical basis itself—remains questionable.

2025-11-22 (Saturday) · 45435fcd2213801f970d4578e98949fb0bb5c6f0

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