多数大型交易商预期供给过剩将延续到2026年；国际能源署估计2026年供给可能比需求多约每日380万桶。Trafigura预期布兰特可能在2026年年中前维持在50美元区间、之后于2026年底回升，但地缘政治（乌俄战争、美国对委内瑞拉的动作、制裁可能变化）仍可能引发短线飙升。OPEC+今年已逐步增产，并计划在2026年第一季暂停进一步增产，同时对过剩规模存在分歧。
油价走低迅速压低燃油成本：美国汽油均价约2.90美元/加仑，为2021年以来首度低于3美元；相较之下，2022年曾因俄乌战争冲击而高于5美元。彭博经济研究估计，油价每下跌10美元，可能在2026年使美国、南韩与日本的消费者物价指数下降约0.2个百分点。但产油国财政承压：沙乌地阿拉伯的财政损益两平油价接近每桶90美元，部分OPEC+成员甚至需要远高于100美元。大型油公司合计宣布约1.4万人裁员，而库存呈两极：美国库欣库存为2007年以来同期最低，中国库存则创新高、超过12亿桶。
Signs of a global oil glut are mounting as both new producers like Guyana and long-time exporters like the UAE ramp up shipments. Sanctioned Russian barrels are still finding buyers, leaving a record ~1.3 billion barrels of crude on the water. Brent is down about 20% in 2025 to near $60 a barrel after trading above $80 in early January, pointing to the biggest annual loss since the pandemic.
Most major traders expect oversupply to persist into 2026; the IEA sees output exceeding consumption by roughly 3.8 million barrels a day. Trafigura projects Brent in the $50s through mid-2026 before recovering late 2026, though geopolitical shocks (the Ukraine war, US-Venezuela moves, potential sanction shifts) can still trigger spikes. OPEC+ has been lifting output but plans to pause further increases in 1Q 2026 while debating whether the surplus will be modest or large.
Cheaper crude is quickly cutting fuel costs: US gasoline averages about $2.90/gal, below $3 for the first time since 2021, versus a peak above $5 in 2022. Bloomberg Economics estimates a $10 oil drop could trim ~0.2 percentage points from 2026 CPI in the US, South Korea, and Japan. But producers face fiscal strain: Saudi Arabia’s budget breakeven is near $90/bbl, while some OPEC+ members need well above $100. Oil majors have announced ~14,000 layoffs combined, even as inventories stay uneven—Cushing is the lowest for this time of year since 2007, while China’s stocks topped just over 1.2 billion barrels.
